The Czech Republic stands on the verge of a significant political upheaval as it heads to parliamentary elections in early October. A potential victory by the populist party of former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš could radically alter the country’s foreign policy, steering it towards a path resembling that of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Such a shift would likely see Prague clashing with EU leadership and dialing back its robust support for Ukraine, sending ripples across the Euro-Atlantic alliance.
Current polls signal a potential landslide for Babiš’s opposition party, ANO (an acronym for “Action of Dissatisfied Citizens,” which also means “yes” in Czech), which is polling around 30%. This gives it a commanding lead over the ruling center-right SPOLU coalition, currently at 19% support. Babiš, a billionaire who founded ANO in 2011 on an anti-corruption platform, is positioning himself for a dramatic return to power after his term as prime minister ended in 2021.
Tapping into public discontent, Babiš is promising to address pressing domestic issues, including cutting taxes, reversing an unpopular pension age hike, and tackling high energy costs. On the international stage, his rhetoric has taken a sharp turn. He advocates for a “pragmatic” foreign policy, vowing not to “blindly follow” EU and NATO directives. Crucially, he has recently called for halting increased arms shipments to Ukraine in favor of seeking a negotiated settlement with Moscow, cautioning against “illusions about defeating Russia.”
While his new stance draws comparisons to Orbán, Babiš’s political history is more complex. During his 2017-2021 premiership, despite being labeled by some as a “Kremlin candidate,” relations with Russia soured dramatically. The lowest point came in 2021 when his government accused Russian intelligence of being involved in a 2014 ammunition depot explosion in Vrbětice, leading to a massive diplomatic expulsion. However, his tenure was also dogged by persistent scandals related to his business empire, including allegations of tax evasion and subsidy fraud.
Despite the commanding lead in the polls, Babiš’s return to the premiership is far from guaranteed. Analysts point to the previous election, where similar polling numbers resulted in a razor-thin victory for the SPOLU coalition, which then formed a government and left ANO in opposition. A new, unpredictable factor is the inclusion of Czech citizens living abroad, who can vote for the first time and are considered unlikely to support the populist leader. Experts suggest that even with an ANO victory, a major pro-Russian pivot is unlikely, with a change in rhetoric being more probable than a fundamental policy overhaul.
Furthermore, even if ANO secures a victory, Babiš himself may not lead the next government. The billionaire remains a highly divisive figure for many Czech voters due to his past controversies. The party’s own shadow cabinet has reportedly designated Karel Havlíček, Babiš’s more popular and less controversial right-hand man, for the top job. This adds another layer of uncertainty, as it is unclear whether a government led by Havlíček would hew to the Orbán-style foreign policy Babiš is currently championing.