A high-stakes political battle is intensifying in Turkey as President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government escalates its pressure on the country’s main and last significant opposition force, the Republican People’s Party (CHP). The struggle recently turned physical when a court-appointed administrator, Gürsel Tekin, forcibly entered the CHP’s crucial Istanbul headquarters, the party’s most powerful branch. The takeover, which occurred on the party’s 102nd anniversary, was met with protests and required police using pepper spray and batons to disperse party members attempting to block the entrance, signaling a dramatic new phase in the government’s campaign against its political rivals.
The move is widely seen as a pivotal strike in a broader strategy to neutralize the opposition ahead of future elections. The CHP’s new and charismatic leader, Özgür Özel, now faces a court-ordered removal from his post, a decision expected in the coming days. Özel had been positioned as a formidable challenger to Erdoğan, especially after receiving the endorsement of Istanbul’s popular mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu. However, İmamoğlu, himself once a leading presidential hopeful, is no longer a threat, as he was imprisoned earlier this year on charges his supporters claim were politically motivated, effectively barring him from running.
For Erdoğan and his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), dismantling the opposition’s influence in Istanbul is a strategic imperative. The metropolis of 15 million is not only Turkey’s economic heart but also a bastion of opposition support. By weakening the CHP’s grip on the city, Erdoğan could significantly smooth his path to victory in any future election, whether it is the scheduled 2028 vote or an early poll he may call. The CHP, founded by modern Turkey’s founder Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, is viewed by many as the last guardian of the nation’s secular and democratic principles, making the current conflict a defining moment for the country’s political future.
Should the court remove Özgür Özel as party leader, the CHP would likely revert to the leadership of his predecessor, 76-year-old Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. This outcome would be a significant boon for Erdoğan, who decisively defeated Kılıçdaroğlu in the 2023 presidential election. Kılıçdaroğlu’s popularity has since waned, and he faces criticism even within the opposition for his perceived lack of charisma and for his background as a Kurdish Alevi, which makes him a polarizing figure for nationalist and conservative religious voters.
The political climate is becoming increasingly volatile, with both sides raising the stakes. While the opposition has long threatened to pursue legal action against Erdoğan should he ever lose power, the government is now reportedly preparing to bring charges against numerous CHP parliament members. Following the recent events in Istanbul, President Erdoğan issued a stern warning, stating that challenging court decisions with street protests is a “challenge to the rule of law” that would be met with a firm response. With the government leveraging the administrative and judicial systems and the opposition banking on public mobilization, Turkey appears headed for a turbulent and decisive political autumn.