By order of US President Donald Trump, starting from June 4, the tariffs on aluminum and steel imposed by them in March are being doubled. This will hit the European Union especially hard, where they are already talking about retaliatory measures. By the same date, the White House administration is demanding that dozens of countries against which trade duties have been imposed submit their proposals on quotas and rates for imports of American products. If the situation cannot be resolved, it is time to talk about a full-fledged global trade war provoked by the actions of the United States.
It is difficult to classify Trump as a politician whose words do not differ from his deeds. And yet, in one aspect, he is extremely consistent. Since the 1980s, when real estate developer Trump began to speak out about world politics and the economy, he defended the idea that the United States was suffering from trade deficits with other countries and that it could only be fixed with tariffs. In his first term as president, he failed to turn around in this regard. But Trump won back on the second one.
This year, he raised tariffs for 185 countries and territories on April 2, solemnly calling this event “America’s day of liberation from freeloaders.” Russia was not among them: the White House said that this could interfere with the peacekeeping efforts of the American president, who is trying to reconcile Kiev and Moscow. Then, when stock markets plunged and outrage erupted, primarily in the United States itself, Trump played back. After a conversation with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who reminded him that the Europeans were ready for retaliatory measures, the American president agreed to postpone the introduction of 50% duties on EU goods until July 8. By this day, as expected in the White House, complex negotiations with dozens of countries should be completed. However, Trump unexpectedly decided to force the situation.
A draft letter prepared by the Office of the United States Trade Representative turned out to be at the disposal of Reuters. It instructs US trading partners to provide their best offers on customs rates, as well as quotas for imports of American products, both industrial and agricultural, by June 4. In addition, the document proposes to eliminate any non-tariff restrictions on American imports. According to the letter, the United States plans to evaluate the responses within a few days and then propose its terms, which may include a mutual bid.
The list of countries to which this letter was sent is unknown. However, it is likely that these are primarily European states and especially the EU. With the exception of China, it is to them that Trump addresses most of his economic claims. Here, in Europe, the US president has managed to win the only, and even then relative, victory in the tariff war. On May 8, Trump announced that it had been possible to agree on the terms of the agreement with the UK. The base tariff rate of 10% remains in place for British goods. An exception is made for automakers. The products of the British car industry, subject to a 10% tariff, are limited to 100,000 cars per year. If exceeded, a 25% tariff will be applied. In turn, the UK removes barriers in its market for American exports of many goods: vegetables and fruits, animal feed, tobacco, beef, etc. There is no such agreement with other countries, and especially with the European Union.
Meanwhile, international organizations are already sounding the alarm. Mathias Cormann, Secretary General of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), said on Tuesday, June 3, that global economic growth is slowing more than previously estimated, from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% this year. In March, before Trump’s “liberation day,” the OECD estimated a 3.1% growth rate in 2025. Cormann cited the actions of the Trump administration and its unreasonable tariff policy as the reason. At the same time, he warned that in reality the growth may be even less.
“Additional increases in trade barriers or prolonged political uncertainty will further worsen growth prospects and likely lead to higher inflation in the countries imposing tariffs,” he warned.
It should be noted that after Trump suspended the introduction of his tariff measures, there were predictions that the US president would stop there. According to polls, the majority of Americans do not support the tariff policy of the American president. So, according to a study by The Harris Poll, conducted in May by order of Bloomberg, 56% of Americans negatively assessed Trump’s tariff policy, admitting that it did not have the best effect on their family budgets. 52% believe that the benefits promised by the president from leveling the trade deficit do not outweigh the problems in the economy due to the trade war. 69% expect prices to rise due to Trump’s actions.
Given that the president’s rating is already declining, he is embarking on a risky experiment. After all, he’s playing against his electorate. Staunch supporters of tariff increases include staunch Trumpists. The EU is going to hit this part of the Republican Party’s voters with its retaliatory measures, the introduction of which has been suspended for the time being. Back in April, at the suggestion of the European Commission, the first package was approved, providing for the introduction of 25 percent duties on American imports in the amount of 21 billion euros. They are proposed to cover steel, iron, aluminum, meat, tobacco, soybeans, orange juice, Harley Davidson motorcycles and Levi Strauss jeans. That is, goods produced in the states where Trump’s support is particularly strong.
However, the American president does not seem to notice this. Last week, Trump announced that the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum (including imports from the EU), imposed in mid-March, would rise to 50% from June 4. However, it is not clear whether this measure will take effect. There is a decision by the US Federal Court of International Trade, which recognized that the president exceeded his authority by imposing duties on imports of goods from other countries. The Trump administration immediately protested it. The appeal will be considered on June 9th. However, it should be recalled that Trump has already ignored court decisions on issues that seem to him to be fundamental. Tariff increases are just such an issue.