The massacre on the coast has become a stress test for the new Syria

Syrian Transitional President Ahmed al-Sharaa called for maintaining national unity and peace amid violence in the country’s coastal provinces. Last week, supporters of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad attacked a security patrol in the coastal city of Jabla, which eventually provoked clashes and the mass killing of civilians by the military. The areas where the riots are taking place are densely populated by Alawites, a religious minority that the previous Syrian elite relied on.

Al-Sharaa called the bloody clashes taking place in the west of the country between the security forces of the transitional government and supporters of Assad “expected problems.” “What is happening in Syria now is one of the expected problems,” the interim head of state said in a speech at the capital’s Al-Akram Mosque. “We must all preserve national unity and civil peace in the country, as well as strive for peaceful coexistence.”

The Head of State made it clear that the crisis on the coast was over. He called on the Syrian security forces to avoid violence. “Residents of the Syrian coast in areas of conflict are an important part of our homeland, so we must protect them,” the President of the transitional period emphasized.

However, as of March 9, the hotbed of resistance on the coast had not been stopped.

Unrest in Syria’s coastal provinces, densely populated by Alawites, began on March 6, when, according to the official version, Assad’s supporters organized a series of attacks on security forces in the city of Jabla. Damascus tried to find the organizers of the ambush and sent its army units to the areas, but they resorted to unjustified violence. According to the Kurdish Rudaw TV channel, the number of those who died due to the central government’s attempts to harshly suppress the hotbed of resistance is approaching a thousand. 

Most of the victims are representatives of the Alawite community, which makes up 12% of the country’s population. Assad belongs to this religious minority, as well as a significant part of the previous political elite.

Damascus claims that cases of disproportionate use of force are purely episodic, but everything indicates that the situation is out of control. First of all, due to the continuing social tension in the country after the change of power on December 8, 2024. “After the remnants of the former regime killed several police and security personnel, large and disorganized crowds headed for the coast, which led to some isolated violations,” the local SANA news agency quoted a senior source in the Syrian Interior Ministry as saying. “We are working to stop these violations, which do not represent the Syrian people.”

The local authorities blame Iran and forces loyal to it for the unrest in Syria. After the collapse of the Assad government, Tehran lost its influence on Damascus. It is generally assumed that he wants to take revenge. “Hezbollah provided support to some parties in a number of coastal areas,” said Sajid al–Dik, a representative of the security forces in the Syrian province of Latakia. “Hezbollah and foreign states provided support to some parties and remnants of forces supporting Assad in a number of areas of the Syrian coast.” According to him, the authorities have arrested people “who held high positions under the previous regime in the region.” However, he did not disclose the identity of the detainees, referring to the security protocol.

The General secretariat of the League of Arab States (LAS) officially announced an attempt by external actors to destabilize the situation in Syria, but did not specify who exactly, in his opinion, could be behind the organization of the unrest. “The Arab League condemns any attempts by foreign interference in the affairs of Syria aimed at destabilizing the situation inside the country, as well as violent actions against government security forces,” the regional club said in a statement. The Arab League also reported on “extreme concern” about the events in Syria and called on the transitional government in Damascus to “take measures not to miss the chance to restore the state.”

Observers fear that the unrest will trigger an endless cycle of violence in which the Islamist groups dominating Syria will persecute minorities, especially those who supported Assad during his presidency. Moreover, the forces close to the Transitional Government have similar experience. In addition, the very fact of uncontrolled violence can convince groups of influence seeking autonomy that they need to fight for their special status and keep their weapons. Among them are the Kurdish formations that control the northeast of Syria (Beyond the Euphrates) and rely on the support of the United States, as well as the Druze, a fragmented community that lives mainly in the southern provinces.

A separate factor is now creating Israeli activity. Recently, the government led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a new policy in Syria. One of its pillars is the protection of local minorities, which, according to the Jewish State, are threatened by the Transitional Government. The other day, Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz said: his country will defend its interests, and called al-Sharaa “a terrorist who revealed his true identity.” “We will ensure that the south of Syria remains demilitarized and free from threats, and we will protect the local Druze population – anyone who harms them will face our response,” the head of the military department stressed.

Katz once again drew attention to the fact that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will maintain its military presence indefinitely in those areas of Syria that were occupied by military personnel after the collapse of the Assad government and the flight of its regular army. “Israel will defend itself from any threat from Syria. We will remain in the security zones and on Mount Hermon (the dominant point in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. – “NG”) and we will protect the settlements of the Golan and Galilee,” Katz stressed.

This means that Israel can regard the situation around the massacres in the coastal provinces of Syria as an impetus to expand its military presence and increase diplomatic activity. In recent weeks, diplomats from the Jewish state have been trying to convince their Western counterparts that Syria needs to be federalized in order to provide reliable security guarantees to local minorities. It is possible that now, after the events around the Syrian coast, the arguments of the Israelis will sound in a new way. 

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