The date of the presidential election in South Korea is set for June 3. The likely winner will be Lee Jae-myung, a representative of the Liberal Democratic Party. Given that his party members also predominate in parliament, this means that a turn to the left is expected in the country’s politics, both foreign and domestic. It is possible that the new authorities will try to improve relations with Russia and China somewhat, although, of course, the country’s strong allied ties with the United States will not disappear.
The date of June 3 was adopted by the government and announced by the acting head of state, Prime Minister Han Dok-soo. This happened four days after the Constitutional Court unanimously upheld the decision to impeach President Yoon Seok-yeol, a representative of the conservative center-right People’s Power party. The law prescribes calling elections no later than 60 days after the post of head of state becomes vacant. Actually, the Cabinet of Ministers met this maximum, giving the candidates a solid deadline to conduct an election campaign.
Recall that Yoon Seok-yeol was impeached because of a very strange and still not entirely clear decision he made: to declare martial law in the country. An explosion of public outrage ensued. The discouraged right-wingers and the “Power of the People” must now urgently find a new candidate who would help them rehabilitate themselves in the eyes of Koreans. Over the past decade, the second president from the party has resigned by impeachment. The first was Park Geun-hye, who was dismissed from office in 2017 after it became clear that she had passed documents classified as “secret” to her shaman friend. Then there were the corruption charges, for which the head of state received a heavy prison sentence – the fate of almost all South Korean presidents. Apparently, Yoon Seok-yeol will also go to prison.
Now it is very likely that his place in the presidential palace will be taken by Lee Jae-myung, whom he beat in the 2022 elections with a margin of only 1% of the vote. The politician is expected to step down as head of the Democratic Party on Wednesday. The president in South Korea is advised to be formally non-partisan. Polls, in particular, conducted by Gallup and NBC, show that slightly more than a third of South Koreans are ready to vote for him. In the current conditions, this is a lot. Lee Jae-myung’s opponents have yet to gain even 13% support in any of the major polls. One of the least promising candidates is independent politician Kim Moon-so, who was previously a member of the People’s Power and served as Minister of Employment and Labor in the government of Yun Seok–young.
There are polls showing an even clearer advantage for Lee Jae-myung. It follows from the responses of their respondents that 40-45% of South Koreans are ready to vote for the leader of the Democratic Party. Candidates are required to register by May 10. The election campaign will begin on May 11. Lee Jae-myung may be hindered by the criminal cases in which he is involved. But he hasn’t been banned from running yet.
The presidential election can greatly change the entire political landscape of the country. In South Korea, there has been a rivalry for decades between two parties that periodically changed their names: the conservative and the left-liberal. Now one of them, the “Power of the People”, may leave the political scene.
“The impeachment of Yoon Seok–young is part of the crisis of conservative ideology in general, taking into account the resignation of Park Geun-hye, who, by the way, also had acts of arbitrariness. But the problem lies deeper: the ideology of conservatives is becoming obsolete. The ideas of anti–communism, free enterprise, and unconditional alliance with the United States are becoming a thing of the past,” says Professor Georgy Tolaraya, chief researcher at the Center for World Politics and Strategic Analysis at the Institute of China and Modern Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
The expert, in a conversation with NG, recalled that even in the March 2022 elections, Yun Seok-el won by a minimal margin, which in itself speaks volumes. At that time, the conservatives were accused that their victory was connected with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Without the latter factor, the now-retired president could have lost. Now there is a crisis of self-identification in the “Power of the People”. The party has yet to find itself anew.
“If Lee Jae-myung wins, and there is little doubt about it, the country’s foreign policy will change. The alliance with the United States will continue, but it will no longer be as “blind” as it was under Yoon Seok-yeol. South Korea will not obediently do everything that Washington demands. Lee Jae-myung is also likely to try to improve relations with China, the country’s main trading partner. Unlike Yoon Seok, he is not inclined to seek out Chinese agents in the country and has no phobias towards Beijing,” Tolaraya says. In his opinion, there are hopes that relations between Seoul and Moscow will improve, of course, to a certain extent.
“In the case of the Russian Federation, the weak point that confuses Seoul remains the interaction between the Kremlin and Pyongyang. It worries South Koreans a lot, and it’s not always reasonable,” Tolaraya points out.
