On the night of Friday, June 13, 2025, the Israeli government, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, launched a military operation against Iran, which had been secretly (under the guise of negotiations) preparing for at least a year, and many of its elements for much longer.
In the first few days, Israel, using the effect of surprise, deeply embedded sabotage cells and drone bookmarks, managed to inflict significant damage on Iran. Nevertheless, despite the triumphant euphoria prevailing on the Israeli Internet and sympathetic publications, there is no decisive victory for Netanyahu over the Persians. But in some distance, the undesirable consequences of Operation Lion Rising are visible, dangerous for the whole world.
What are we really observing? There is no military defeat of Iran by Israel, and it is definitely not expected.
Losses in the leadership of Iran’s army and security forces are being quickly replenished, followed by the partial restoration of air defense systems and an arsenal of long-range missiles due to external supplies. The flow of supplies through various channels to help the “victim of aggression” will increase. Underground (more precisely, underground) nuclear facilities have survived, despite Israel’s use of American depth charges, secretly imported during the Trump administration.
Despite Netanyahu’s appeal to the Iranian population (“We are for your people, but against the regime”), there are no signs of internal destabilization in the country. The potential for a street riot or a palace coup is close to zero.
Netanyahu’s conflict scenario was clearly designed for reflexive management. It was expected that in response to direct aggression from outside and inside and personal terror, Iran would declare war on Israel, withdraw from the NPT, expel the IAEA representatives from the country, abandon any negotiations on the nuclear program, close the Strait of Hormuz and – most importantly – strike US military bases. Bingo! The Israeli-American tandem and their pool of Western allies have their hands free and there are no red lines.
The military defeat of Iran was possible only with full-scale joint actions by Israel and the United States. The joint decisive offensive of the “lion and eagle” was and still remains the main part of the scenario. US President Donald Trump needed an obvious and convincing pretext to make a decision about joining the war – an attack on American facilities and the loss of personnel.
The Americans in the Middle East now have approximately 40,000 troops at at least 19 facilities under the command of CENTCOM. Some contingents are particularly vulnerable – in Syria and Iraq. The largest presence is in Qatar and Bahrain, with significant presence in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait. There are two American bases in Israel.
In order to move to the main phase of the war (regime change by force in Tehran), the operators of the Lion Rising urgently need Iran’s counter aggression: threats against the United States and its allies, terrorist attacks and direct attacks. In order for Trump to receive a legal and moral mandate to intervene in the war, cassis must be as bellied as possible.
So far, Tehran has been following an international line that is impeccable from the point of view of canonical international law: it speaks of its unwavering loyalty to the JCPOA 2015, renounces its intention to have nuclear weapons and attempts to obtain them, remains within the framework of the NPT and continues to work with the IAEA. Stepping up its peaceful offensive, Iran has declared its readiness to formalize the eternal renunciation of nuclear weapons in the form of a special guarantee agreement.
The international reaction to Netanyahu’s Persian campaign is mixed and many are still waiting. The position of direct support for Iran is taken by the leaders of Pakistan and Algeria. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un speaks about immediate practical assistance to Iran as a victim of aggression.
It is important where the Arab world is going to swing now. Predictably, the small kingdom of Jordan hid in a shell. But the Egyptian leadership and Sunni leader Saudi Arabia “strongly condemned” what they called blatant Israeli aggression. In a telephone conversation with Iranian President Masoud Peseshkian, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman expressed his personal condolences and support to the Iranians. The rest of the Arab League members will soon follow this line.
Russia and China have called for a halt to hostilities and a return to negotiations. At the same time, Russia publicly, including in the UN Security Council, condemned the Israeli actions in harsh terms that had not been heard for a long time. Perhaps Moscow’s sharpness was added by the striking similarity in sabotage operations with drone installations: it turned out that Kiev saboteurs acted in Russia on June 1 in much the same way as Israeli saboteurs did in Iran on June 13. “Vague doubts” are quite natural here.
Israel’s military operation is now at a crossroads. Without a quick ground operation aimed at forcefully changing the leadership in Tehran, Netanyahu will not solve any of his main tasks. But without the direct and full-scale participation of the United States, such an operation will fail. If Trump refuses to be complicit, it simply will not take place. It is obvious that Iran, remaining within the framework of international law, will receive increasing international assistance, and Israel, continuing to demolish “defenseless” Iran, will face increasing condemnation.
Russia, pursuant to the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement with Iran (dated 17.01.25), has already officially offered its mediation in the negotiations between the United States and Iran to resolve differences over Iran’s nuclear program. Judging by Trump’s reaction, peace is preferable to the most dangerous military adventure for him, and even against the background of the growing internal turmoil in the United States.
It seems that Netanyahu’s Persian campaign will end in vain for him. After that, political opponents will present the bill to the Prime minister and the government.
The long-term consequences can be much worse. For the first time, Netanyahu demonstrated his willingness to carry out regime change by force in Islamic countries, combining large–scale sabotage – beheading and disarming – with a massive external attack. This new threat will undoubtedly be taken into account by all Arab and Islamic regimes. And they will also wonder: is Tehran really wrong with its nuclear program? The painful craving for an atomic shield may spread.