As former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro faces trial for an alleged coup attempt, the nation finds itself caught between upholding its judicial sovereignty and facing crippling economic pressure from the United States. In a move to support his political ally, U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed staggering 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods, forcing the South American giant into a difficult choice: pursue justice or preserve its economy.
Brazil’s Supreme Court began hearings on September 2nd in a case accusing Bolsonaro of a multi-point conspiracy to violently retain power after his 2022 election defeat. Prosecutors allege the former president, with military support, planned to declare a state of emergency to nullify the victory of his opponent, current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The charges also link Bolsonaro to organizing the January 8, 2023 riots, where his supporters stormed and ransacked Congress, the Supreme Court, and the presidential palace in events reminiscent of the U.S. Capitol attack of 2021.
Bolsonaro denies all accusations, and his legal team argues the trial is a politically motivated persecution. Their position is staunchly supported by President Trump, a long-time friend of Bolsonaro. Calling the proceedings a “witch hunt,” Trump made it clear that the new 50% tariffs were a direct response to the prosecution of his ally, dismissing any economic rationale for the decision. This move is particularly unusual given that Brazil imports more from the U.S. than it exports, a trade imbalance that typically shields countries from Trump’s tariff-focused policies.
The U.S. pressure places President Lula in a precarious position. With a presidential election looming in 2026, the confrontation offers an opportunity to project strength on the international stage, an area where his administration has faced criticism. According to Magomed Kodzoev, a senior researcher at the RAS Institute of Latin American Studies, standing firm against what many Brazilians perceive as disrespectful U.S. interference could rally Lula’s political base and has already led to a slight bump in his approval ratings.
However, the economic risks are substantial, with the U.S. accounting for over 10% of Brazil’s total exports. If the economic fallout becomes too severe, Lula risks alienating voters. While some sectors, like oil companies, have already announced plans to seek alternative markets, Kodzoev notes that the president has little choice but to respond decisively. “By showing weakness,” the expert suggests, “the president risks turning away a significant portion of his most loyal supporters,” making a determined stand against the tariffs almost a political necessity for Lula.