Tensions between Asian giants China and India are escalating on a new front: the shared waters of the Himalayas. Beijing’s plan to construct a colossal dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo river in Tibet has alarmed New Delhi, prompting India to fast-track its own massive hydroelectric project in a strategic tit-for-tat response that experts are calling a high-stakes ‘dam race’. The competition over water resources marks a dangerous new chapter in the relationship between the two nuclear-armed rivals.
The river, known as the Brahmaputra in India, originates from the Angsi Glacier in Tibet and serves as a lifeline for over 100 million people across China, India, and Bangladesh. An Indian government analysis has sparked serious concern, warning that China’s dam could slash the river’s flow by a staggering 85% during the dry season. New Delhi fears that Beijing, its long-standing strategic competitor which lays claim to the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, could weaponize its control over the water, using it as a powerful tool of geopolitical leverage.
In a clear preemptive move, India is pushing forward with its own multi-purpose dam in Arunachal Pradesh, near the Tibetan border. According to documents from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s office, work on what would become India’s highest dam is scheduled to begin this year. The project’s urgency has been highlighted by reports that design documents were transported to the remote mountain site under police protection, signaling a high level of national priority.
While China has officially announced its project—which Indian analysts estimate could cost $170 billion—it has remained secretive about the specifics. Construction reportedly began in July, but Beijing has yet to publish details on the project’s scope or environmental impact. A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson asserted that its hydroelectric projects undergo rigorous scientific review and that there is no cause for alarm, a statement met with skepticism in India.
For India, its own dam serves a crucial dual purpose. According to government assessments, the Indian dam would mitigate the potential water shortage in key industrial and agricultural hubs, reducing the impact of a potential 25% drop in water supply to just 11%. Furthermore, it would act as a vital buffer, able to absorb sudden, large releases of water from the Chinese dam during monsoon season, thereby preventing catastrophic floods downstream.
This race for hydro-dominance is not without its costs. India’s project has faced fierce, and at times violent, opposition from local communities in Arunachal Pradesh, who fear their villages will be submerged and their traditional way of life erased. The dispute over the Brahmaputra also mirrors other regional water conflicts, such as the long-running tensions between India and Pakistan over the Indus River, underscoring water security as a growing point of friction across South Asia.
Top-level diplomacy is underway, with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar recently raising the issue with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi. While some experts suggest that the worst-case scenarios may be exaggerated if the projects are ‘run-of-the-river’ designs, the overt competition for control over the Himalayan headwaters demonstrates a tangible and worrying escalation in the complex and often fraught relationship between the two nations.