The period of Justin Trudeau’s rule has ended in Canada. Instead, 59-year-old Mark Carney, who won the election of the head of the Liberal Party, will become prime minister. Trudeau’s successor will continue his line towards the southern neighbor. He will respond defiantly to Donald Trump’s demonstrative attempts to put pressure on Canada, while at the same time trying to reach an agreement with the United States. The two countries are strongly connected to each other so that, at least in Ottawa, they can afford a serious confrontation.
Trudeau has been in power for quite a long time for the leader of a democratic country. He became the head of the Liberal Party in 2013, and prime minister after his party members won the parliamentary elections in 2015. Trudeau’s resignation was predetermined by the government’s economic miscalculations. The main one is the careless distribution of “helicopter money” during the pandemic. The result of the fact that payments from the state budget began to be given even to those who did not need additional support, was an acceleration of inflation and, as a result, an increase in prices. Canadians, according to polls, place high prices, not Trump’s threats to annex the country to the United States and the tariff war with Americans, at the top of the list of national problems.
Economic setbacks caused a drop in the rating of the ruling Liberal Party, the actual collapse of the ruling coalition and Trudeau’s promise in January to leave office as soon as the party chooses a new leader. This new prime minister may not lead the country for long. All political forces in the country, and first of all, the Liberals’ main competitor, the Conservative Party, agree that a government of a parliamentary minority should not exist and the country needs parliamentary elections.
There were four candidates for the post of head of the Liberal Party. Carney’s main competitor, according to polls, was former Finance minister and Ukrainian-born politician Chrystia Freeland, who loudly and publicly criticized the prime minister and resigned last year. And so, in the elections held on March 9, the results of which were summed up the next day, Carney won a convincing victory. He received 85.9% of the vote, leaving Freeland far behind. She has only 8%. Two other contenders, former Speaker of the House of Representatives Karina Gould and former parliamentarian and now businessman from Montreal Frank Baylis, hopelessly lagged behind even Freeland. Gould received only 3.2%, expressing public surprise about this. Baylis was voted for somewhere within the statistical margin of error.
It is unclear exactly when Carney will assume the post of Prime Minister of Canada. He will talk about this separately with Trudeau. It is also not completely clear when the parliamentary elections will be held. Formally, the vote should take place no later than October 20. It is possible that Carney will want to hold elections as soon as possible, at a good moment for himself.
In his speech immediately after the election results were announced, Carney said that his key tasks as head of government would be to strengthen the economy and border security: the White House believes that illegal immigrants and drugs enter the United States through Canada. At the same time, Carney expressed his attitude towards Trump and his encroachments on the country’s independence: “The United States is not Canada. Canada will never be a part of the United States, in any shape or form.”
The new head of the Liberals is a living reminder that Canada is one of the possessions of the British crown. He headed two central banks: in 2008-2013, the Bank of Canada, and in 2013-2020, the Bank of England. He was responsible for the struggle to stabilize the financial systems of the two countries in the context of the global economic and Brexit-related crises. He coped well with both tasks, and from the height of his experience, Carney criticized Trudeau’s course. Disputes with the prime minister led to his resignation from the post of adviser to the head of government and the struggle for the right to become one himself. They probably secured the trust of the voters for him. “Carney is the only one of the four candidates who did not hold official positions in the Trudeau cabinet and was not a member of parliament. Accordingly, it is easier for him to distance himself from the politics of an unpopular prime minister than for other candidates. Voters are also impressed that Carney is not a man of politics, he is from the field of economics and business. Among his many posts is the post of chairman of the Bank of Canada during a difficult period for the country, during the financial crisis of 2008. Canada, in comparison with the United States, survived the crisis quite painlessly, including thanks to sound financial policy and competent actions of the banking sector,” says Natalia Vyakhireva, Head of the Canada Department at the Institute of the USA and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences. In a conversation with NG, she added that Carney had clearly indicated before the election his intention to repeal the carbon tax introduced by Trudeau, which turned out to be very unpopular among Canadians. Also among his priorities will be the fight against high housing prices, which have soared in Canada amid an apparent shortage of housing stock.
The tone of the election of the head of the Liberal Party was set by the tariff war with the United States, which is still taking place more in theory than in practice. Last week, Trudeau responded to Trump’s 25 percent increase in duties on Canadian goods with a similar measure for U.S. products. The Canadian Prime Minister delivered a big, heartfelt speech denouncing the owner of the White House. Then they had a phone conversation. After that, as well as after a conversation with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, Trump postponed the introduction of tariffs until April 2. Thus, intentionally or not, the US president has created an important theme for the election campaign for the Canadian parliament.
Carney’s chances of winning reduced suspicions that he might make concessions to the White House. More recently, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant called him more “prudent” than the retiring Trudeau (see NG on 03/05/25) in matters of bilateral relations. In the current Canadian conditions, this is serious anti-advertising. All four candidates positioned themselves as opponents of Trump. Even the opponents of the liberals, the conservatives, are against him. They vehemently deny that, despite their traditional reputation as like-minded Republicans, they will make any concessions to Trump. “I am not his supporter!” the head of the Conservative Party, Pierre Pouillevre, categorically declared, today, according to polls, the most popular politician in Canada, which means he is a competitor for the post of prime minister of the current head of the liberals. However, Carney is not going to back down either. He said that Trump wants to weaken the Canadian economy, but “he will not succeed in this.”
If the new prime minister does not make loud mistakes that will result in his resignation, he will lead his party to the parliamentary elections. The main rival of the liberals will be the conservatives. Over the past year and a half, they have been noticeably more popular than the liberals, although after Trudeau announced his resignation in January, Carney’s party ratings began to rise. Thus, the choice of the leader of the Liberal Party is an intermediate and short–term stage of the struggle for power. Who will be the new prime minister for the next four years remains to be seen.
