The highly publicized negotiations in London, following which Donald Trump was allegedly going to decide whether to continue the peace process between Russia and Ukraine, were held in a less representative format than expected. At the last moment, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio refused to participate in them, followed by the foreign ministers of Great Britain, France and Germany. This happened shortly after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected what the press called the key American condition of the truce: the legal recognition of Crimea as Russian territory. On the same day, US Vice President Jay Dee Vance bluntly stated that Russia and Ukraine should accept what Trump is proposing, otherwise the United States will withdraw from the negotiation process.
Several American officials emphasized the importance of the talks in London last week. It was even said that this was the last chance to achieve a truce. So, the special representative of the US president, Keith Kellogg, associated with the London talks the hope for “progress on the issue of a truce” and made it clear that it should be clarified there whether Trump would continue his attempts to reconcile the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Rubio, for his part, indicated as early as April 20 that the United States could wash its hands of other issues if it was not convinced within a few days that the peace process had prospects. Trump was not so categorical in his comments: he did not name a specific deadline. But according to him, it also gave the impression that the patience of the American president was running out.
The talks in London were planned to be held at the level of foreign ministers, including key European allies of the United States, which, according to Trump, were tasked with ensuring that the truce was not violated. British Foreign Minister David Lammy was to preside, and French Foreign Minister Jean–Noel Barrault and German Foreign Minister Annalena Burbock were to participate in addition to Rubio. A Ukrainian delegation with the participation of Foreign Minister Andrei Sibiga, head of the Presidential office Andrei Ermak and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov also arrived in London. Information regarding whether the special representative of the US president, Steve Witkoff, would be involved in the London talks was contradictory. It was reported in the press that he, being responsible for contacts with the Kremlin, has in his hands a peace settlement plan proposed by Trump, which, according to American media sources in the White House, provides for the recognition of Crimea as Russian, some security guarantees for Ukraine and the creation of a neutral zone under American control around the Zaporizhia NPP. However, Rubio could also have presented a plan. The discussion of such issues is within his official competence.
However, on Wednesday, April 23, a few hours before the start of the negotiations between the foreign ministers, it became clear that Rubio would not go to London. State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce gave a very strange, if not mocking, explanation for this. Allegedly, the most important negotiations did not meet the busy work schedule of the head of American diplomacy. “Secretary Rubio is a busy man,” she told reporters. Instead of Rubio and Witkoff, Kellogg went to London, the one whom Trump instructed to deal only with contacts with official Kiev. Naturally, both Burbock and Barro canceled their trips to the British capital.
As a result, negotiations were conducted in London by those who do not have the authority to coordinate any peace plans – at best, only their individual aspects.
The Wall Street Journal newspaper linked the failure of negotiations with Zelensky’s press conference on Tuesday, April 22. There, the Ukrainian president rejected the very possibility of recognizing Russian sovereignty over Crimea. According to him, no one has made any “official proposal” of this kind to Ukraine. And if he had, she wouldn’t have accepted him. “Ukraine does not legally recognize Crimea as Russian, it is outside our Constitution. This is our territory, the territory of the people of Ukraine,” Zelensky said.
If indeed the US plan provides for a legally formalized renunciation of Ukraine from Crimea, then the Ukrainian president could reject it for two reasons. The first is because Zelensky decided not to take on such political responsibility. The official abandonment of Crimea is a major blow to his rating ahead of a very possible presidential election this year. A part of Ukrainian society is not ready to pay such a price for peace. For the same reason, Zelensky may fear that he simply will not be able to achieve this solution. To give up Crimea, the Constitution must be changed. This means that 300 votes of the deputies of the Verkhovna Rada (the pro-presidential majority is only 280 votes) and approval of the decision in a national referendum will be required. If Zelensky agrees to a truce, it is politically much easier to actually abandon any territories without legal registration of this step.
But maybe the Ukrainian president was not speaking on his own behalf. Someone – perhaps Trump, perhaps Trump’s European allies – decided, based on the results of contacts with the Russian Federation, that Moscow wants too much in exchange for peace. Let us recall that any hints that any sanctions could be lifted from Russia as a condition of a truce were categorically rejected by the leadership of the European Union and the leading EU countries. The position (at least the one that was voiced for journalists) of the European allies of the United States has been unequivocal on this issue so far: first, a truce, concessions from Moscow, and then, perhaps, a conversation about easing sanctions pressure.
In any case, the Kremlin is not inclined to dramatize the situation. The breakdown of negotiations in London is regarded there as a working moment. “In London, indeed, there was talk of a meeting of envoys from the United States, envoys from Ukraine, so that the United States could continue its mediation efforts. As far as we understand, it has not yet been possible to bring positions closer on some issues, and therefore this meeting has not taken place now,” Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, noting that contacts between Russia and the United States would nevertheless continue.
Meanwhile, Vance made a very important statement on Wednesday regarding these contacts. He said that Trump’s peace plan provides for mutual territorial concessions from both Russia and Ukraine. As Vance put it, “some territorial exchanges will have to be carried out,” as a result of which the actual borders of the countries will not coincide with the existing front line. Earlier, the Financial Times newspaper claimed that the Kremlin was offering just the opposite: a truce along the existing line of contact. In other words, Vance reminded that Trump should not be considered someone who will put pressure only on Kiev. The US Vice President once again warned that the time has come when Russia and Ukraine must “either agree, or the United States will withdraw from [the negotiation process. – “NG”) of the process.” Vance did not explain what would follow from this withdrawal, increased support for Ukraine or, conversely, a complete rejection of it. It is only significant that he announced the exchange of territories while on a visit to India, one of Russia’s most important trading partners, and therefore a potential target of US sanctions.
On Wednesday, Trump himself commented on the situation. He posted the following text on his Truth Social network:
“President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky boasts on the front page of The Wall Street Journal that “Ukraine does not legally recognize the occupation of Crimea. There’s nothing to talk about.” This statement is very harmful to peace talks with Russia, as Crimea was lost many years ago under the auspices of President Barack Hussein Obama and is not even a subject of discussion. No one is asking Zelensky to recognize Crimea as Russian territory, but if he wants Crimea, why didn’t they fight for it eleven years ago when it was handed over to Russia without firing a shot? Large bases of Russian submarines were also located in this territory for many years before the “transfer by Obama”. It is inflammatory statements like Zelensky’s that make a peaceful settlement so difficult. He has nothing to brag about! The situation for Ukraine is terrible — he can get Peace or fight for three more years before he loses the whole Country. I have nothing to do with Russia, but I have a lot to do with wanting to save an average of five thousand Russian and Ukrainian soldiers a week who are dying for no reason. The statement made by Zelensky today will do nothing but prolong the “field of death,” and no one wants that! We are very close to an Agreement, but the person who “has no cards to play” must now finally DO IT. I look forward to helping Ukraine and Russia get out of this Complete and Total DISASTER that would never have happened if I had been President!”
