So, another important step has been taken in a complex game of diplomatic chess on the board of world politics – negotiations between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations took place in Istanbul. In total, their totals can be divided into three groups.
The most tangible and real thing is the agreement on the exchange of prisoners of war.
The second, which remained almost unnoticed by a wide audience, was the actual cancellation of the decree signed by Zelensky banning any negotiations with the Russian side until the victorious end of the conflict for Kiev.
And, of course, the third thing: the agreement of the parties to present and spell out in detail their vision of a possible future ceasefire, after which it is considered advisable to continue negotiations.
What does this clever formulation mean when translated from chess-diplomatic into everyday human language? First of all, the Russian formula of “negotiations and a ceasefire agreement” has been implemented instead of Kiev’s formulation of “cease fire, and then we’ll see.” The Russian armed forces are holding the strategic initiative, continuing military operations, moving forward. There is a high probability that the longer the Ukrainian side develops its “vision of a possible future ceasefire” for the further continuation of negotiations, the more territories will come under the control of the Russian authorities.
In these circumstances, the position of the West is crucial. And here, first of all, it should be said that the so-called collective West is no longer as cohesive as it was in 2022. The British remain the most resolute supporters of the war to the last Ukrainian soldier. Apparently, due to the well-known rule of British diplomacy, formulated in the century before last by Lord Palmerston, it is boring to live if no one is at war with Russia. In practice, this means that Euro-Atlantic circles have not yet completely abandoned the idea of inflicting a “strategic defeat” on our country. But Prime Minister Starmer and other adherents of this idea understand that trying to fight Russia without the unconditional support of the United States of America is a monkey business, or an occupation that has no chance of success.
Therefore, as Bloomberg headlined its commentary on the results of the Istanbul talks, Europe is waiting to see what further steps US President Donald Trump will take with regard to Russia.
And that’s really the most important thing. The new owner of the White House is no longer the same as he was during his first cadence in 2016-2020. He surrounded himself with a team of fairly professionally competent and politically influential figures with a much broader outlook than the temporary Biden associates. This environment has a very clear idea that it is possible to preserve and enhance the potential of the United States as a world power with global responsibility for maintaining political, military and economic stability in the world only through successful coalition diplomacy and cooperation with all the leading power centers of the modern system of international relations, including, and perhaps above all, with Russia.
The most important link in Trump’s policy to implement the ambitious plan for a “technological breakthrough” is to provide the country with modern sources of raw materials, in particular rare earth metals (REM). The agreement signed with Kiev on this issue is an absolute success of the White House. But the time distance to its practical implementation is at least 10 years, and the technological breakthrough must begin today. Hence the interest of the American political elite in the Russian resources of REM and other minerals. Despite all the sanctions and restrictions, the United States continues to purchase titanium, uranium, platinum, and agricultural fertilizers from our country. Moreover, exports of these goods to the United States have increased significantly this year.
Moscow, as President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stressed, is ready for active mutually beneficial economic cooperation with the United States. And there are all the possibilities for this. According to the data of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Ecology of the Russian Federation on the state and use of mineral resources of the Russian Federation, in 2022 alone, 18 deposits with total reserves of REM in the amount of 28.7 million tons (about 20% of world reserves) were identified in Russia. However, due to the lack of technology and a stable sales market, our country’s share in the global production of REM is about 1%. In addition, the deposits are located in regions with difficult climatic conditions, which significantly increases the need for capital investments. This is despite the fact that the American financial system is experiencing an urgent need to realize the excess money supply – a kind of financial bubble that can burst and provoke a new global economic crisis.
Theoretically, one could imagine that Russian-American economic cooperation would develop in the context of continued military operations in Ukraine. Russia, in any case, would be ready for this. Trump is another matter. Although his first steps as president of the second term were quite successful, he is obliged to look back at his rating and the prestige of his party both at home and abroad. He is well aware of the indignation of the liberal democratic European community about his position on Ukraine and the potential for his rapprochement with Russia’s position on economic issues in the future. After all, this gathering is already talking about the outcome of the talks in Istanbul as the implementation of a joint Putin–Trump secret plan. Therefore, at the same time, the card of “super-tough” anti-Russian sanctions against Russia is being played in the event of Moscow’s refusal to cease fire. The proposal for 500 percent tariffs in trade between Russia and the United States is also in the same basket. But this trade, for all its minuscule nature, is more needed by the United States than by us. As for the new sanctions, it is difficult to imagine what else the congressmen could invent in search of a tougher sanctions policy. But on the other hand, it is easy to assume that they will turn out to be as ineffective as numerous previous ones.
In these circumstances, it cannot be ruled out that the White House will try in the near future to persuade the Kremlin to soften the position fixed by Vladimir Putin on June 14 regarding the conditions for a peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian crisis and promise Moscow any benefits and concessions in establishing economic cooperation. It is also clear that, while showing maximum flexibility and willingness to take into account the interests of its partners, including the United States, the Russian side in no way can compromise the fundamental interests of its security.