According to one of the Turkish officials, the second round of Russian-Ukrainian negotiations passed without negative results. The parties exchanged their draft memoranda outlining their vision of ending the conflict, and agreed on another prisoner exchange. The exchange will be bigger than the last one, which was agreed in Istanbul at the first round, on May 16. However, there is no agreement on a long-term ceasefire. It is not clear whether this will be perceived by the EU and the United States as a reason to impose new anti-Russian sanctions.
Unlike the first round, which took place in Dolmabahce Palace for two hours, the current round, which took place in Chiragan Palace, lasted even less – only about an hour. The discussion was preceded by an introductory speech by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, which was open to the press. He mentioned the possibility of a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky (Fidan had previously stated that the presidents of the United States and Turkey, Donald Trump and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, could participate in it), issues of a cease-fire and prisoner exchange. The head of the Turkish Foreign Ministry did not speak about any issues related to the ownership of certain territories. Thus, according to his speech, it remained unclear whether the parties intended to discuss what US Special Presidential envoy Steve Witkoff, who was engaged in shuttle diplomacy between Moscow and Washington, considered key to resolving the conflict: agreements on which territories would be ceded to Russia and what would remain with Ukraine.
The head of the Ukrainian delegation, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, described the results of the negotiations in an interview with reporters after the talks. The parties exchanged their proposals on ending the conflict and took a week to study them. According to Umerov, when it comes to the exchange of prisoners of war, it was decided to focus on categories rather than numbers. According to him, it was decided to exchange all the wounded and seriously ill, as well as young soldiers between the ages of 18 and 25 (for most of the history of independent Ukraine, this was the age of conscription). In addition, Umerov said there was an agreement on the exchange of the dead – 6 thousand for 6 thousand. Ukraine has also handed over to the Russian Federation a list of children whom it considers illegally deported to Russia. Finally, Umerov outlined, apparently, the main proposal from the point of view of the Ukrainian authorities. “In our opinion, the further work of the delegations makes sense if it is aimed at preparing the meeting of the heads of state. We have proposed to the Russian side to hold a meeting at the leadership level before the end of this month: from June 20 to June 30,” he said.
The head of the Russian delegation, Assistant to the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Medinsky, in turn, said that Ukraine had been offered a short-term truce for two to three days in certain sectors of the front. “So that the commanders could pick up the corpses of their soldiers,” he explained. Medinsky confirmed Umerov’s statement regarding the prisoner exchange with a significant clarification: the “total ceiling for the exchange” of young soldiers will be at least a thousand people on each side. Speaking about the Russian memorandum, which was handed over to Ukraine, Medinsky noted only that this document consists of two parts. “The first one: how to achieve real long-term peace. And the second part: what steps should be taken to make a full-fledged ceasefire possible. Moreover, in the second part there is even a variation – to enter this path or to enter this path,” he said.
What matters now is what follows the second round, which did not result in an agreement on a long-term cease-fire. Zelensky, who is on a visit to Vilnius these days, said that in the absence of a result (or rather, what Kiev considers to be such) of the second round, Trump should respond with new measures of pressure on the Russian Federation. “If the Istanbul meeting does not bring anything, it will clearly mean that new strong sanctions are urgently needed – within the framework of the 18th package of the EU and from the United States. In particular, the very stronger sanctions that President Trump promised,” the President of Ukraine said. The head of the White House, we recall, promised that within two weeks (it turns out, before his birthday on June 14, when Flag Day will also be celebrated in the United States), he would determine whether the Russian Federation really aimed at a peaceful agreement.
It is unclear whether Trump, who is calling for a cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine, is ready to support tougher action against Moscow. However, US Senators Lindsey Graham (Republican from South Carolina, included in the Russian list of terrorists and extremists) and Richard Blumenthal (Democrat from Connecticut), the authors of a large-scale anti-Russian sanctions bill, are already traveling across Europe to convince allies to impose new sanctions against Russia before the G7 summit scheduled for June 15-17 in Canada..
The senators describe the bill they have prepared as crushing and containing the most stringent sanctions measures compared to previous documents. It provides for secondary sanctions against Russia’s trading partners. It is proposed to impose duties of 500% on imports from those countries that buy Russian oil, petroleum products, gas or uranium. Other restrictions include a ban on U.S. citizens from purchasing Russian sovereign debt obligations.
The senators began their tour at the end of last week from Kiev, where they assured Zelensky of their determination to advance the bill. They then visited Paris, where they met with senior French officials and had a telephone conversation with President Emmanuel Macron. And on Monday they arrived in Berlin for previously unannounced talks with the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and a planned meeting with the new German Foreign Minister, Johann Wadefoul.
According to the senators, the bill is in the upper house of the American Congress “in full combat readiness.” Senators are only waiting for the go-ahead from the White House to put the draft to a vote. Moreover, in the process of preliminary consultations, the authors of the bill have already provided him with 82 votes out of 100.
“The bill we have introduced will isolate Russia, turn it into an “island” in terms of trade, imposing high tariffs on other countries that support it,– the American senators convince the Europeans. – One of the priorities of our law is to ensure that China is responsible for fueling Putin’s military machine by buying cheap Russian oil, which is delivered by the “shadow fleet”.
They are convinced that without China’s economic support, the Russian military-industrial complex will not be able to receive everything necessary to continue the fighting in Ukraine. In this, their opinion coincides with the Europeans. Judging by the closed report of the German Foreign Ministry, which some media outlets accessed at the end of May, the European Union suspected China of circumventing 80% of the sanctions restrictions against Russia.
The American bill clearly demonstrates the intention to force consumers of Russian energy resources to abandon their purchases in the Russian Federation under the threat of losing access to the American market. And thereby isolate and economically weaken Russia, forcing it to compromise.
Unsurprisingly, von der Leyen “welcomed Senator Graham’s commitment to increase pressure on Russia and advance the sanctions bill in the Senate next week,” the European Commission said. She stressed that both the European Union and the United States “need a real cease-fire, we need Russia at the negotiating table.”
Von der Leyen said that the EU is preparing the next, 18th package of tough sanctions aimed at Russia’s energy revenues, including the infrastructure of the Nord Stream pipeline and lowering the upper limit on the price of crude oil. “These steps, taken together with the US measures, will dramatically increase the overall impact of our sanctions,” the head of the European Commission said.
According to Bloomberg, European countries are discussing a new ceiling on Russian oil prices at $45 per barrel as part of the preparation of the 18th package. Moreover, the same measure was discussed during a recent meeting of finance ministers and heads of central banks of the Group of Seven. In the West, they expect that lowering the ceiling will hit the Russian budget. And blacklisting all new tankers of the “shadow fleet” will complicate their use. So the blow could be very painful for the Russian economy.
Discussion of the bill may begin in the Senate as early as this week. It is unclear whether the Republican-controlled House of Representatives will support him.