The Kremlin does not refuse to have a dialogue with Donald Trump, but prefers to set the conditions for it. This follows from statements made by Russian officials on Thursday, March 13, when the special representative of the US president, Steve Witkoff, arrived in Moscow. Judging by them, the Kremlin reacted coolly to the American-Ukrainian proposal for a 30-day truce. Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia agrees with the proposal for a cease-fire in Ukraine, but on condition that it leads to a long-term peace, and several nuances will need to be taken into account.
Back on March 12, Russian Presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov, commenting on the US-Ukrainian talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, indicated that more detailed information was needed to assess them. It was probably supposed to be provided by Witkoff, who already has one successful mission in Moscow, the February prisoner exchange between American Mark Vogel and Russian Alexander Vinnik. The exchange was followed by Russian-American talks in Riyadh, which raised hopes that the bloodshed between Moscow and Kiev would stop in the foreseeable future.
Witkoff’s visit was preceded by two possibly unrelated events. Russia regained its control over the Kursk region, and following the talks in Jeddah, the Ukrainian authorities declared their readiness to declare a truce for 30 days with the possibility of extension, provided that Russia takes a similar step. The truce agreement in the Trump team, and the American president himself, was presented not only as their success, but also as a starting point in a dialogue with the Kremlin.
Apparently, much of what has already been agreed upon or what the Russian, American and Ukrainian participants in the negotiation process are counting on has remained behind the scenes. What has been reported to the press about the Jeddah agreement raises many questions. When is the truce planned to be announced? Who will control its observance – someone (the question is, whose?) Is it a monitoring mission, as it was in Donbass in the period after the Minsk agreements, or armed peacekeepers? If the latter is the case, which countries’ troops will be part of the peacekeeping contingent and what will be its powers? British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron are assembling what they call a “coalition of the willing” who are ready to send their troops to Ukraine. According to the press service of the British government, negotiations have begun with a total of 37 countries. However, the participants of the Jeddah meeting did not mention this coalition in their conversations with journalists.
Finally, if there is a truce, then which line? Is it the current military contact or for some other reason? The Trump team did not provide answers to these obvious questions.
At least for the press, the issue of security guarantees for his country, which was extremely preoccupying for Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, in case the permanent peace, which could turn into a truce, was violated by Russia, also did not become clear. So far, there is only the notorious US-Ukrainian agreement on minerals. It has not yet been signed, and no government agency has even published its text. So it’s not clear if there’s any mention of rare earth metals. Let’s remind, it all started with them. In February, Trump stated that in return for military aid to Ukraine, he wants the equivalent of $500 billion in rare earth metals from it. This vividly reminded many observers of the events of his first presidential term. In September 2017, Trump signed an agreement with the Afghan government on the extraction of rare earth metals in Afghanistan. The argument then was the same as it is now in the case of Ukraine. However, this deal did not save the government of Ashraf Ghani from military defeat and loss of power four years later.
After the meeting in Jeddah, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, contrary to his previous statements, said that the agreement on natural resources is not considered by the United States as a guarantee of Ukraine’s security. And what is being considered? What will the White House propose to the Kremlin to agree to? The press was never told about it.
On the other hand, Russian Presidential aide Yuri Ushakov spoke on the Rossiya-1 TV channel about his conversation with the participant of the meeting in Jeddah, Assistant to the US President for National Security Michael Waltz. The American official was informed that the Kremlin was satisfied with a long-term peace, not a short-term cease-fire. “A 30-day temporary truce. Well, what does it do? It doesn’t give us anything. It only gives Ukrainians the opportunity to regroup, gain strength and continue the same thing in the future,” Ushakov said.
However, on the evening of March 13, Vladimir Putin announced that he agreed with the proposal to cease hostilities, but this should lead to a long-term peace. “The idea itself is correct and we will certainly support it, but there are issues that require painstaking research,” said the head of the Russian Federation, who said that some nuances should be taken into account. For example, in the Kursk region, the situation is completely under the control of the Russian Federation, and the Ukrainian group is blocked there. “Should we let them out after they committed a lot of crimes against civilians?” the president asked. – How will these 30 days be used? In order for forced mobilization to continue in Ukraine? In order for weapons to be supplied there? How will the issues of control and verification be resolved?”
Now Trump is interested in continuing the dialogue. His popularity in the United States is declining, including due to actions in the field of foreign policy. According to an Emerson College social Service survey timed to coincide with the 50 days of Trump’s rule, 45% of Americans disapprove of his course on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Only 41% approve. If the US president achieves a visible result in the form of peace soon, this, of course, will have a positive impact on his rating.
