Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is purging the camp of his critics. Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, one of the most popular opposition politicians, was arrested on March 19 on charges of corruption and conspiracy with terrorist organizations. His colleagues in the Republican People’s Party (CHP) consider the initiated investigation to be an element of pressure from the authorities. On March 24, the party will hold primaries to nominate its candidate for the 2028 presidential election. Imamoglu was called the most suitable figure for this role.
Arrest warrants for Imamoglu and a number of city hall officials were issued on the morning of March 19. “As part of two investigations conducted by the Istanbul Prosecutor General’s Office, warrants have been issued for the detention of 106 suspects, including the mayor of Istanbul,” said Turkish Justice Minister Yilmaz Tunc. “It is wrong to assess the case without information about the investigation, which is closed. It is also unacceptable to call for people to take to the streets. It is necessary to calmly monitor the progress of the investigation and respect the decisions that will be made. Threats against representatives of the judiciary are unacceptable.” He added that in Turkey “everyone is equal before the law, and no one can be in a privileged position.”
Imamoglu, against whom six investigations have already been opened, is accused of fraud when working with public tenders, as well as corruption. In addition, the Prosecutor General’s Office believes that before the 2024 municipal elections, the Istanbul mayor colluded with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). It is a leftist organization that has been waging an armed struggle against Ankara since the 1980s, but now it is talking about its readiness for reconciliation. According to law enforcement agencies, Imamoglu and his associates allegedly collaborated with Kurdish left-wing radicals in order to accumulate electoral support in some districts. As a result, this strategy has strengthened the PKK’s position in megacities, according to a statement from state prosecutors.
The arrest occurred a few days before the RNP primaries, at which the party was supposed to nominate its presidential candidate. Most opinion polls showed that the most promising candidate for the opposition party would be Imamoglu, who enjoys significant popular support. However, the authorities recently tried to deprive the politician of the legal opportunity to run for office. For example, Istanbul University, which Imamoglu graduated from in 1994, revoked his higher education diploma, citing a violation of the rules when transferring to this institution in 1990. This automatically deprived the Istanbul mayor of the opportunity to hold the highest public office.
CHP leader Ozgur Ozel said that Erdogan is trying to disqualify Imamoglu because the opposition leader has every chance of defeating the incumbent president in 2028, when general elections are scheduled to take place in the country. “Erdogan sees that Imamoglu will win,” he said. – And the popularity of the CHP, judging by a number of polls, is higher (than that of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) led by the president). – “NG”) by 20%.” Ozel expressed the opinion that the events around Imamoglu are an “attempted coup in Turkey.”
The chairman of the CHP called on all regional branches of the party to start protests in connection with the detention of the mayor of Istanbul. The call was made despite the fact that the authorities are trying to restrict the work of social networks and impose bans on demonstrations in Istanbul. On March 19, CHP deputies blocked the work of the General Assembly of the Turkish parliament by gathering at the central rostrum in protest. The meeting was postponed.
Turkey’s economy, which is experiencing a crisis, is showing its unpreparedness for another political upheaval. After the arrests in Istanbul, the dollar rose by 11% against the Turkish lira. After the intervention of the Central Bank, the exchange rate of the national currency stabilized, however, as reported by the business newspaper Ekonomim, the Central Bank of Turkey intends to sell about $ 10 billion from reserves to stabilize the lira.
European capitals, with which Ankara has recently been trying to strengthen relations, reacted negatively to the news of Imamoglu’s detention. “The detention of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu and others in Turkey is a serious blow to democracy in the country,” a German Foreign Ministry spokesman told reporters at a briefing.
The French Foreign Ministry, in turn, reminded that Turkey “it is important to comply with the international obligations that it voluntarily assumed, in particular, as a member state of the Council of Europe.”
In a conversation with NG, Grigory Lukyanov, a researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, explained that Imamoglu’s arrest is part of a political struggle. “Elections are not coming soon, but the electoral campaign in Turkey began almost immediately after the completion of the previous presidential elections in 2023,” the expert noted. “Then the CHP, relying on its then leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu and suffering a crushing defeat, learned a certain lesson: the era of political activity of the party’s old–timers is over. We are talking about new rules of the game, new conditions in which only representatives of the younger generation can successfully represent the interests of the party and successfully compete either with Erdogan himself or with his political heir.”
According to the NG interlocutor, this generation of functionaries is trying to establish itself not so much in the field of party work as in the field of practical management at the municipal level. “And Imamoglu performed admirably in the Istanbul mayoral elections, he performed admirably as an organizer and representative of the CHP,– Lukyanov drew attention. “He is not just part of the cohort of new party leaders – he literally leads it, having real competitive advantages in the fight against both Erdogan himself and his potential successor.”
The source of NG reminds that AKP candidates for the upcoming elections have not yet been nominated, but it is already clear that Imamoglu should become the opponent of the government in 2028. “In this regard, the current leadership of the country is doing everything possible to clean up the political space in the medium and long term,” Lukyanov explained. According to him, the successes of Erdogan’s foreign policy, which he managed to accumulate against the background of the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, against the background of PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan’s public call for disarmament, make it possible to convert them into domestic political actions, including those that may incur reputational costs for the authorities.
“Of course, accusations of foul play will follow against the Turkish leadership, both from the domestic opposition and from the opposition abroad,” the expert admitted. “Nevertheless, now the authorities can compensate for this criticism, relying on the effect of public support from the success of the fight against the PKK and the apparent successes in the Syrian direction.”
According to NG’s interlocutor, Imamoglu’s arrest may have no effect on US-Turkish relations. “The current administration of the President of the United States has not turned Imamoglu into its favorite and its representative in future elections,” Lukyanov explained. – In his rhetoric, Donald Trump paid little attention to the Turkish leader personally, did not emphasize his personality as a problematic factor in the framework of bilateral relations. And during Trump’s previous term, the American establishment continued to call Turkey the most difficult, but at the same time the most important ally and partner of the United States in the region, despite the cooling of relations. Trump does not intend to turn Erdogan into an irreconcilable opponent for himself and the United States.”
According to the source, the head of the White House leaves room for maneuver and does not seek to radicalize bilateral relations with Turkey.
“Imamoglu’s rhetoric in foreign policy was quite volatile, his main focus was on domestic policy,” Lukyanov recalled and added that now Turkey is not at the stage of the election campaign when foreign policy plays a big role in political statements.
