Though President Donald Trump’s new term has only just begun, the American political sphere is already consumed with speculation about the 2028 election. Shocked by the president’s turbulent and unexpected policy directions, the nation is looking ahead, with early polling starting to paint a picture of who might replace him. The search for a successor is being driven by a series of contentious moves, including threats to deploy troops to Chicago and a proposal to rename the Department of Defense the ‘Department of War,’ pushing millions of Americans to contemplate a future with a less extravagant leader in the White House.
In the perennial election cycle of American politics, pollsters are looking to New Hampshire for early clues. The state traditionally hosts the nation’s first presidential primary and has a reputation for ‘predicting’ the eventual party nominees, even if its voters don’t always back the final winner. According to a new poll from the state’s Saint Anselm College, the Republican field has one clear favorite: J.D. Vance. He commands a dominant 56% of support among New Hampshire Republicans, a figure that aligns with his strong performance in national surveys. At 41, Vance is seen by many as a younger, more polished version of Trump, and his media savvy has established him as the undisputed frontrunner.
Other potential Republican candidates are left far behind in the New Hampshire poll. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is a distant second with just 8% support, while other prominent figures like Secretary of State Marco Rubio and former primary rivals Vivek Ramaswamy and Nikki Haley poll even lower. Vance’s commanding lead suggests a strong party consolidation around a figure who embodies a continuation of the Trumpist movement, but with a different face.
The situation for the Democrats is far more fractured. The New Hampshire poll shows a statistical tie for the lead between California Governor Gavin Newsom and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, both at 23%. Notably, the party’s most recent vice-presidential nominee, Kamala Harris, languishes at just 6%. While the race is tight in the Granite State, national polls suggest Newsom may have the upper hand, with a recent YouGov survey putting him at 21% support among Democrats, well ahead of Buttigieg’s 10%. This indicates that while the party has no consensus candidate yet, Newsom, who has been noted for emulating some of Trump’s populist style, is emerging as a prospective leader.
One thing is clear from the early data: Americans do not want a third term for Donald Trump. The president has previously hinted he might challenge the Constitution to run again in 2028. However, a recent Data for Progress poll shows 69% of Americans are against the idea. While Democrats and independents are firmly opposed, Republicans are deeply conflicted. A narrow majority (52%) believe the two-term limit is sacred, yet a near-identical 53% would support Trump if he ran again, revealing a party torn between constitutional principle and loyalty to its singular leader.