Both the President of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky, and the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, simultaneously spoke out against the provisions of the memoranda that the Ukrainian and Russian sides presented at the talks in Istanbul. At the time of signing the issue, the US reaction to the apparent failure of the White House’s peacekeeping efforts is unknown. There are signs that Trump is gradually getting tired of his fruitless attempts to reconcile Russia and Ukraine and will want to show that he is withdrawing from the conflict. It is not a fact that as a result, the Ukrainian military will remain unarmed. Rather, supply chains will change (Ukraine will place more orders at American private defense plants) and the share of European weapons in their total volume will increase. Finally, the likelihood of new anti-Russian sanctions is increasing.
Putin made a harsh statement at a meeting with the government. “The recent bombing of railway tracks in the Bryansk and Kursk regions is, of course, a terrorist act, and the decision to commit such crimes, of course, was made in Ukraine at the political level,” he said. Noting that Ukraine is retreating, Putin accused it of switching to terror tactics. “Against this background, they want a ceasefire for 30 or 60 days, they are asking for a meeting of the leaders. Who is negotiating with those who rely on terrorism? Why encourage them by giving them a break?” – the Russian leader emphasized.
Recall that the ceasefire and the summit are the conditions set out in the Ukrainian memorandum presented at the second round of negotiations in Istanbul. Zelensky, in turn, criticized the Russian memorandum on Wednesday. He called it an ultimatum, which is unacceptable for Ukraine.
The only thing that remained unclear was the reaction of the United States, whose leadership was pushing Moscow and Kiev to negotiate. It is known that in connection with the negotiations in Istanbul, the US Ambassador to Turkey, Tom Barrack, threw a mysterious phrase: “Trump has run out of patience, he cannot be called a patient person.” On Wednesday, it became clear that this does not mean the immediate introduction of secondary sanctions in accordance with the bill prepared in the US Senate. Republican Senator John Wicker said that Trump had instructed Republican Majority leader John Thune not to submit the document for consideration this week.
However, there are signs that the US president will react to the current situation in a different way: simply by withdrawing from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. US Secretary of Defense Peter Hegseth is skipping two events that address the supply of Western ammunition and weapons to Kiev – the Ramstein meeting (which took place on June 4) and the Ukraine–NATO Council, scheduled for June 5. As the Pentagon’s press service explained to reporters, the unprecedented absence of the US Secretary of Defense at events of this kind is due to a technical problem. A visit to the NATO headquarters in Brussels does not fit into Hegseth’s busy work schedule. The Pentagon urged the press not to dramatize the situation. After all, the United States is still present at the Ramstein meeting. They were represented by Matthew Whitaker, the Ambassador to NATO, for the first time since the introduction of such a format. Previously, all meetings of this kind were attended by the heads of the Pentagon. They also presided there until February 2025. Since Trump came to power, the United Kingdom has led the meetings in the Ramstein format.
It would be more accurate to say that two meetings do not fit into Hegseth’s busy work schedule. The Ukraine–NATO Council is, in essence, negotiations between the Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov (by the way, who headed the Ukrainian delegation at the talks in Istanbul) and the heads of the defense departments of the North Atlantic Alliance. Hegset will not be there, despite the fact that both the Ramstein format and the Ukraine–NATO Council are meeting in the same place (at NATO headquarters in Brussels) and as part of the same event – a meeting of the alliance’s defense ministers. Consequently, there is Hegseth’s self-withdrawal from this topic. Will the United States withdraw from arms supplies to Ukraine?
Representatives of the Trump administration have already made it clear that such an option is possible. At the February Ramstein meeting, Hegset did not make the statements that had become customary for American officials of Joseph Biden’s team that the United States would support the Ukrainian military as long as necessary. But he unequivocally stated that NATO membership is excluded for Ukraine, and America’s European allies should rely more on their own forces, including in support of Kiev.
Finally, in March, after the famous quarrel between Trump and Zelensky in the Oval Office of the White House, the United States suspended arms supplies to Ukraine for several days. More precisely, those that were approved under Biden: no decisions on new supplies were made under the new administration. That moratorium on arming Ukraine, in general, did not turn into anything fatal for the combat capability of the Ukrainian military. This is due to the fact that it was both very short-lived and limited. Trump did not bother canceling Ukrainian orders placed at American private defense plants. In addition, Ukraine has not lost an indispensable defense service for the Armed Forces of Ukraine – the supply of intelligence received thanks to American satellites. If a complete halt in arms supplies occurs, it will be a very serious blow to Kiev.
According to estimates by the Kiel Institute of World Economy, from January 24, 2022 to December 31, 2024, Ukraine received 145 billion euros in military aid. Of these, 75 billion are in the United States. Vladimir Batyuk, head of the Center for Military and Political Studies at the Institute of the USA and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted in a comment to NG that under Biden it was the Americans who supplied Ukraine with most of the weapons. “The lack of American supplies of air defense systems will be a particularly serious blow to it. The European allies of the United States will not be able to provide Ukraine with anything similar, say, to the American Patriot systems,” he believes. According to Batyuk, the reduction of American support for Kiev will happen one way or another due to economic reasons. “Both American businesses and ordinary citizens are facing difficult times. When the national debt is growing and social spending is declining, it is very difficult for the American president to distribute taxpayers’ money to no one and no one knows what,” the expert said.
Of course, it should be borne in mind that the reduction in spending on Ukraine will be perceived ambiguously in American society. In general, according to polls, the majority of Americans are on the side of this country in its conflict with the Russian Federation. This is the position of the American elites. Impressive, for example, is the speed with which Republicans and Democrats in the U.S. Senate were able to agree to support a bill to impose secondary sanctions on Russia. If Trump gives the go-ahead, this document will be approved by Congress without any problems. But the fact that Trump will be able to quickly and easily enlist the support of lawmakers when it comes to canceling defense orders paid for by Ukraine (more precisely, the EU, which provides assistance to Kiev) is not at all a fact. By being too zealous in cutting support for the Ukrainian military, the US president will inevitably deal a blow to his already declining rating.
Nevertheless, the option in which the White House will eliminate the supply of Ukraine in one way or another looks very real. The actions of the American allies are also in his favor. They are in a hurry to announce an increase in supplies to Ukraine. The British Ministry of Defense announced that in 2025, the Ukrainian military will receive 10 times more British drones than last year – 100,000 instead of 10,000. And German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced that in a few weeks Ukraine will receive the first long-range weapons from his country. This refers to the Taurus missiles capable of hitting targets at a distance of 500 km.