On the eve of the first direct talks between Russia and Ukraine since 2022, the West seems to have changed its attitude towards them. In fact, the mandatory (as stated in Europe) condition for their implementation has been removed from the agenda: Moscow’s declaration of a truce. But there is more and more reason to believe that the White House will be involved in the negotiations. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky categorically called for Donald Trump to come to Istanbul. The American president himself did not rule out such an option either.
The talks in Istanbul are scheduled for May 15. However, as of Tuesday, May 13, their participants are still unknown. “The Russian side continues to prepare for negotiations, which are scheduled to take place on Thursday,” Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, limited himself to such a comment. As for Zelensky, he insists that Vladimir Putin participate in the negotiations from the Russian side. At the same time, the Ukrainian president is clearly impressed by the idea of Trump’s participation in the negotiations. On Monday, he admitted that he could, under certain circumstances, interrupt his Middle East tour and arrive in Istanbul on May 15. Zelensky wrote on May 12 on a social network that he supports Trump’s proposals for a cease-fire and direct negotiations with the Russian Federation. “And of course, all of us in Ukraine would like President Trump to be able to be there with us – at this meeting in Turkey,” the Ukrainian president summed up.
Regardless of whether Zelensky’s words will be heard in the White House or not, there is a high probability that the Americans will somehow be involved in the Istanbul talks. First of all, the American delegation headed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio will visit Turkey in any case. There, in Antalya, on May 14-15, a meeting of the foreign ministers of the NATO countries is scheduled. Secondly, CNN reported information that was not officially confirmed at the time of signing the issue that two Trump special representatives would be in Istanbul on Thursday: Keith Kellogg and Steve Witkoff. The former is responsible for contacts with Zelensky’s team, the latter is in contact with the Kremlin. A CNN source clarified that Kellogg and Witkoff will be watching the negotiations, but not directly involved in them. If Trump does arrive in Istanbul, then, of course, he will not be limited to the role of an observer.
If the list of participants in the negotiations is unknown, then more can be said about their proposed agenda thanks to Witkoff. Trump’s special representative spoke with a journalist from the mouthpiece of the American conservatives, the Breitbart News portal. Of course, it is worth correcting that the interview was taken before Putin’s address, in which the Russian president proposed holding a meeting between representatives of the Russian Federation and Ukraine and named its date. However, Witkoff at least said how the White House sees future Russian-Ukrainian direct talks. According to him, based on the results of communication with people in the Kremlin and Zelensky’s office (and Witkoff, as he stressed, actively communicates with the Ukrainian side, including personally with the Ukrainian president), the topic of discussion was narrowed down. This is the fate of five regions, “two of which are under Russian control” (probably Crimea and Donbass), the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, and “how Ukrainians can use the Dnieper River and reach” the Black Sea. Interestingly, Witkoff did not talk about a change of power in Kiev, or about any form of disarmament of this country, or even about Ukraine’s refusal to join NATO. Maybe the White House considers these issues either resolved or non-negotiable.
In his interview, Witkoff talked a lot about how the Kremlin wants to negotiate, that the United States is obliged to listen to both sides and help them find common ground. At the same time, he uttered the word “ultimatum.” Trump’s demand for Russia and Ukraine to come to an agreement, Witkoff said, is ultimatum in nature. According to the special representative, “our task is to bring them together and convince them that the alternative to an agreement would be worse for everyone.” By the way, he, like the US president earlier, called the very confrontation between Russia and Ukraine stupid.
Not only from this interview with Witkoff, but also from other signs, one can see Trump’s irritation that his efforts to end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict are not yielding a visible result that he could present to the world and his voters. If earlier the US president and his high-ranking supporters more often called Ukraine an obstacle on this path, now their discontent is directed more and more often at the Russian Federation.
In this regard, it is noteworthy that Senator James Cornyn, a prominent figure of the Republican Party and a staunch Trumpist, spoke in the upper house of Congress on Tuesday, May 13. He vented his anger at the Russian leadership, accusing it of trying to delay negotiations and gain time in the hope of achieving a favorable result for himself, instead of ending the armed confrontation with Ukraine as soon as possible. “President Trump has made it clear that he will not allow Russia to continue what he calls imposing its ideas on us,” Kornin said. The senator warned that “any attempt to deceive or try to pressure President Trump will not succeed.” Not only Cornyn, but also other Republican senators recall the bill, which provides for secondary anti-Russian sanctions: duties of 500% on goods from countries that buy natural resources of the Russian Federation. The document has not yet been put to a vote, although 72 out of 100 senators already support it. That’s enough to even override a presidential veto. The senators are clearly waiting for the outcome of the negotiations in Istanbul and, more broadly, Trump’s peacekeeping efforts.
The same wait-and-see attitude was eventually adopted by the European allies of the United States. A few days ago, they threatened to immediately impose new sanctions if Russia did not agree to a 30-day truce starting on May 12. And on May 13, representatives of the leadership of the European Union and the leaders of European countries spoke only in the future tense about the truce and sanctions against the Russian Federation for refusing to establish it.