The conflict between US President Donald Trump and billionaire Elon Musk has been one of the most actively commented international events for many days now. They called themselves members of a team dedicated to changing America and making revolutionary changes in it. But instead of a revolution, the world saw a quarrel between the richest and most influential man in the United States, with mutual threats and accusations, and most importantly, with far-reaching political consequences. The Republican Party risks losing its most important sponsor. Trump’s supporters have seen firsthand that his policies are much more chaotic and less thought out than they previously thought. All this increases the likelihood of the president losing control of Congress in the upcoming elections. If Trump loses the support of lawmakers, he will not be able to reach an agreement with the Kremlin on many important issues. After all, his opportunities to bring his ideas to life will be extremely limited.
In connection with recent events in the American media, the famous essayist and analyst Nassim Taleb is periodically recalled. It’s not just that he publicly supported Musk in his quarrel with Trump and is now trying in every possible way to persuade the billionaire not to reconcile with the president. Taleb is the author of the expression “black swan”. So in his book of the same name, he called a very serious and completely unexpected event that can only be explained in hindsight. The first “black swan” of the Trump presidency turned out to be a quarrel with Musk.
The American press has been writing for a long time that the president will have to limit the billionaire’s political activity in one way or another. The Department of Government Efficiency Improvement (DOGE), which was headed by Musk, managed to make many enemies during its short period of activity. The billionaire’s campaign for the mass dismissal of civil servants and the liquidation of entire departments has confused many even in the ranks of staunch Trumpists. She was one of the key reasons for Trump’s downgrade. For some of the president’s opponents, Musk was also a symbol of the new administration’s hypocrisy and corruption. The billionaire close to power, who was admitted to government contracts and confidential information, became a byword for the left wing of the Democratic Party. Long before May 30, when Musk’s contract to serve as head of DOGE expired, there were numerous reports, citing sources, that the president would not extend the billionaire’s powers, although he would not remove him from his entourage. At first, it seemed that this would happen.
On Musk’s last official day in public office, he and Trump said goodbye, but as friends. The president presented the billionaire with symbolic keys to the White House. The billionaire, in turn, thanked Trump for the opportunity to reform America and reduce taxpayer spending. At the same time, Trump made it clear that he did not expect Musk to completely leave politics and the presidential entourage. And then the scandal broke.
Trump and Musk quarreled, in fact, because of two circumstances. The first was the president’s refusal to appoint a businessman and astronaut who dreamed of flying to Mars, Jared Isaakman, a friend of Musk, as head of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). At first, Trump seemed to have already decided on his appointment, then changed his mind. The White House administration’s statement did not explain in any way why it was suddenly decided not to appoint Isaakman as head of NASA. The New York Times newspaper, citing sources, reported that Trump allegedly found out that this friend of Musk was making donations to the Democratic Party. But there is no non-anonymous confirmation of this.
And finally, the main thing that quarreled between Musk and Trump was the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.” This is the official name of the budget bill proposed by the president. He caused a lot of complaints from different sides. Musk was infuriated by the sharp increase in government spending (mainly due to defense), which he regarded as the destruction of all DOGE’s work, and cuts in tax benefits, including for manufacturers of electric vehicles. And this is a direct blow to the interests of the billionaire owner of Tesla.
Trump and Musk exchanged mutual threats. The billionaire hinted that he was ready to publish or promote some kind of compromise against the president related to the Jeffrey Epstein case, a high–profile pedophile scandal in 2019, in which, as it is still assumed, high-ranking officials may be involved. Trump also menacingly warned Musk against his intention to finance the Democratic Party. “If he does this, he will have to answer for it,” the president literally said in an interview with NBC News.
A quarrel is politically dangerous for Republicans. In 2026, midterm congressional elections are coming up, as a result of which, according to polls, Trump’s party members may lose their majority in both chambers. Pavel Sharikov, an American expert, noted in a comment to NG that there is now a struggle, including for Musk’s money on the eve of the elections. He is one of the key sponsors of the Republican Party. “The quarrel is especially dangerous for Trump, because it happens at the very moment when the “big beautiful law” barely passed the House of Representatives. He was supported by a margin of one vote. It is clearly visible that the opponents of the bill, with which Trump has such high hopes, are strong in the Republican Party,” the expert recalls.
Vladimir Vasiliev, chief researcher at the Institute of the USA and Canada, believes that Musk, based on his four-month communication with the president, condemned Trump’s policy and all Trumpism on behalf of those circles of the technology business that associated hopes for fundamental changes with the new head of state. “It seemed to the president’s supporters that, yes, the president is an older man, a former showman, but there is some kind of strategy behind his craving for external effects. But Musk says no, there is no strategy. Trump is really turning everything into a show with nothing behind it. Look at the tariffs, Ukraine, and much more. There were a lot of loud promises everywhere, and everywhere, in fact, nothing has been done,” Vasilyev said.
Musk is signaling that instead of a revolutionary, Trump has turned into a classic systemic politician who thinks only about re–election – his own, if plans for a third term are not rejected, or about electing his successor, or about his party’s election victory. According to Vasiliev, the billionaire actually raised the issue of the need to replace Trump before the society and the Republicans. It is even possible that Musk, despite the fact that he is legally not eligible to run for president (he was born outside the United States), has his own presidential ambitions and expects to realize them somehow.
Anyway, the conflict between two members of the same team indicates that the Trump administration is facing a serious challenge. The answer to it will not be easy to give.