Turkey’s main opposition leader, Özgür Özel, has called for a massive demonstration in Istanbul on Wednesday, September 17, setting the stage for what is anticipated to be the largest protest against President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in recent memory. The leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) has vowed that the protests will continue until at least October 24, the day a court is scheduled to rule on a case that could see him removed from his party’s leadership. For Özel and Erdoğan’s critics, the legal challenge is a decisive moment, with many fearing that his ousting would signal the end of any remaining democratic checks and balances in the country.
The political drama is escalating as the opposition navigates a complex legal and political battlefield. A court in Ankara was expected to deliver a verdict on September 15 but postponed the hearing, a move that disrupted the CHP’s strategy. The case itself seeks to annul the results of the November 2023 party congress where Özel was elected chairman, with prosecutors alleging significant procedural violations. This legal action is viewed by the opposition as part of a broader, politically motivated crackdown that has seen numerous CHP officials face criminal charges, ranging from corruption to insulting public officials.
The pressure on the CHP has been immense. The party’s most popular figure, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, who was seen as a potential presidential contender, has been imprisoned since spring. From behind bars, İmamoğlu has endorsed Özel, further raising the stakes. In the lead-up to the now-postponed court date, tensions flared with new arrests of CHP functionaries in the party’s stronghold of Istanbul. In response, Özel announced the protest series, dubbed “For the Nation,” and scheduled an emergency party congress for September 21, intending to have his leadership reaffirmed by party members to counteract a potential negative court ruling.
While the court postponed its decision to October 24, it introduced a new element of pressure by demanding a list of all delegates attending the planned CHP congress. Supporters immediately interpreted this as a tactic of intimidation, suggesting that delegates could be targeted with legal action. Despite this, the CHP’s central committee has decided to proceed with the congress, aiming to solidify Özel’s legitimacy and formally position him to challenge Erdoğan. The “For the Nation” protests will also go ahead as planned, signaling the opposition’s refusal to back down.
The confrontation between the government and the opposition has thus entered a new, uncertain phase. While the CHP leadership projects confidence, President Erdoğan’s position remains formidable. He commands the state’s security apparatus and enjoys substantial support, especially in Turkey’s conservative heartlands. Perhaps most critically, his government is benefiting from positive economic news. The Ministry of Finance recently reported a budget surplus, and the national statistics institute announced a 4.8% GDP growth in the second quarter. As Turkish voters have historically been more concerned with the rising cost of living than with Erdoğan’s authoritarian methods, this economic upswing may significantly strengthen his hand in the ongoing political struggle.