High-level security talks between Israeli and Egyptian military and intelligence officials have been initiated in Cairo, signaling a sharp rise in tensions over the Sinai Peninsula. The discussions, reportedly requested by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government and coordinated with the U.S. administration, aim to de-escalate a volatile situation at the border with Gaza, where Egypt has bolstered its military presence. This buildup is now challenging the foundational 1979 peace treaty that has kept the region stable for decades.
The core of the dispute lies in mutual suspicion. According to sources cited by Qatari media outlet Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, Egyptian officials protested the placement of Israeli communication and surveillance towers near the border. In turn, the Israeli delegation voiced grave concerns about the growing number of Egyptian forces and military infrastructure in Sinai, a move that directly contravenes the demilitarization clauses of their historic peace agreement.
These concerns were formally relayed to the United States, with Israeli intelligence pointing to Egypt’s modernization of air-base runways and the construction of underground facilities that could potentially serve as missile storage sites. The 1979 accord, a landmark achievement that made Egypt the first Arab nation to recognize Israel, strictly limits the number of troops and types of military hardware Cairo can deploy in the Sinai Peninsula.
While both nations have previously agreed to temporary exceptions to these rules, primarily for counter-terrorism operations against Islamist groups in Sinai, the prolonged war in Gaza has severely eroded mutual trust. Egypt’s primary fear is a mass exodus of Palestinians into its territory. Cairo is bracing for a scenario where an intensified Israeli offensive could push up to a million Gazans across the border, potentially including Hamas militants who could establish a new front on Egyptian soil.
Adding to the tension is Israel’s aggressive campaign of targeted assassinations against Hamas leadership. Following an operation in Qatar, Cairo is reportedly seeking firm guarantees from Israel and the U.S. that it will not be the next target for such actions, especially since it has hosted negotiators from both Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad faction in the past.
Analysts from the strategic intelligence firm Stratfor assess that while a full-scale war between the two regional powers remains unlikely, the risk of miscalculation leading to border clashes has significantly increased. Both Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi are under domestic pressure to project strength, raising the stakes for any potential border incident.
The conflict could also escalate into the economic arena. Analysts suggest that if Egypt does not scale back its military deployment, Israel could retaliate by suspending a key agreement to export natural gas from its Leviathan field. Such a move would disrupt Egypt’s energy supply, forcing Cairo to seek more expensive liquefied natural gas (LNG) on the international market at a time of significant economic strain.