France is currently gripped by an escalating political drama, as President Emmanuel Macron issues a high-stakes ultimatum to his recently resigned Prime Minister, Sébastien Lecornu. Tasked with a critical 48-hour mission, Lecornu must secure a budget agreement for 2026 with the opposition by October 8. Failure to present a draft budget to parliament by the looming deadline of October 13 could plunge the nation into an unprecedented fiscal crisis, potentially leaving France without a crucial financial roadmap as it enters the new year.
The week began with a fresh jolt to French politics as Sébastien Lecornu became the seventh Prime Minister to resign under President Macron’s tenure. After less than a month in office, and just a day after his government was formally unveiled, Lecornu stepped down on October 6, citing an insurmountable impasse with parliamentary factions over the proposed 2026 budget. Opposition parties vehemently rejected the government’s plan, which included stringent public spending cuts. In a desperate bid for stability, President Macron has now entrusted Lecornu with a final, temporary mandate to de-escalate the crisis. Until a permanent solution is found, Lecornu and his newly appointed ministers will serve as a caretaker government, barred from enacting significant policy decisions or reforms.
“At the President’s request, I have agreed to conduct final negotiations with political forces for the sake of national stability,” Lecornu posted on social media. “On Wednesday evening, I will inform the head of state whether this is possible, so he can draw all necessary conclusions.” Meanwhile, reports from presidential officials hint at Macron’s willingness to “take responsibility” should Lecornu fail, a veiled suggestion that the President might dissolve parliament and call for snap legislative elections, a move previously considered an extreme measure.
Macron’s determination to cling to his presidential mandate and consolidate power is increasingly challenged by his dwindling political capital. While calls for his resignation from the far-right National Rally and the far-left La France Insoumise are a constant in political discourse, a more ominous sign is the erosion of support from former allies and even members of his own pro-presidential coalition.
Notably, Édouard Philippe, Macron’s first Prime Minister from 2017 to 2020 and now Mayor of Le Havre, has openly urged the President to announce his resignation and call early presidential elections immediately after a budget is passed. This audacious proposal implies a quid pro quo: Macron steps down, and parliamentary factions agree to the austerity measures. Philippe’s influence is significant as he chairs the Horizons party, a key component of Macron’s “Together for the Republic” coalition, holding 33 seats in the National Assembly. A loss of their support would severely cripple the already fragile parliamentary standing of the presidential bloc.
This trend of disaffection extends to Gabriel Attal, who served as Prime Minister earlier this year and leads Macron’s own Renaissance party, also part of the ruling coalition. Attal recently voiced his increasing bewilderment with the President’s decisions. Such public distancing from Macron has become a defining feature among centrists who once formed his loyal base, a shift observers attribute directly to the plummeting public sentiment evident in recent polls.
A recent survey by the independent polling firm Odoxa-BackBone Consulting underscores Macron’s perilous position, revealing that a clear majority of French citizens — 57% — hold him primarily responsible for the deepening political crisis. In contrast, Sébastien Lecornu, despite his brief and tumultuous tenure, enjoys a surprisingly robust approval rating of 44%, double that of his predecessor, François Bayrou, upon his resignation. Public discontent is further highlighted by a significant increase in calls for dissolving the National Assembly and holding new elections, now backed by 60% of respondents, up from 37% in June. A striking 70% of these voters also demand Macron’s resignation, an increase of 16 percentage points year-on-year.
Pundits widely share a pessimistic outlook regarding Lecornu’s eleventh-hour mission. Dr. Sergei Fyodorov, a leading researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Europe, commented, “The probability of Lecornu successfully negotiating with the country’s political forces is quite low. He spent almost a month trying to reach an agreement and failed. It is doubtful that this can be achieved in just two days.” Fyodorov emphasized that Lecornu’s original resignation stemmed precisely from political factions’ unwillingness to compromise, making a sudden shift in their stance highly improbable.
For Macron, the most logical next step would be to call snap parliamentary elections, according to Fyodorov. “Perhaps a balance of political forces could emerge that allows for the formation of a stable coalition. Under current conditions, the government cannot pass crucial legislation, including the budget,” he explained. However, the expert cautioned that even new elections might not break the stalemate. While predictions suggest an increase in representation for the far-right National Rally, they are unlikely to secure an absolute majority needed to form a government, requiring them to seek a coalition partner — a challenging prospect given their isolation. In such a scenario, Fyodorov envisions the possibility of a “technical government” overseeing affairs until a new cabinet can be formed. This, however, would likely mean operating under the old budget, potentially with minor adjustments, a situation he warns would “not contribute to the country’s development or reduce its national debt, which is growing every second.” He added, “The appointment of yet another new Prime Minister is also unlikely to help. Three heads of government – Michel Barnier, François Bayrou, and Lecornu – failed to reach agreements with the parties. I doubt a fourth would suddenly succeed.”
Should the budget negotiations ultimately collapse, France risks a repeat of the previous year’s predicament. On January 1, 2025, a special law for temporary state financial management had to be enacted, extending spending based on the 2024 budget. The 2025 budget was only passed in February, not through parliamentary consensus but by executive decree – a power granted to the Prime Minister in such circumstances by the Constitution. This time, however, if a new government proves equally short-lived, the stop-gap measure could extend far beyond February, intensifying the host of problems facing the nation.
Economically, France has struggled for years to meet the stringent Maastricht criteria for EU membership, and sustained economic growth remains elusive. Failure to implement public spending cuts would further erode the country’s already declining investment attractiveness. This trajectory, experts warn, could force France to relinquish its long-held position as one of Europe’s leading economic powers, with profound implications for its standing on the international stage.