Washington and Beijing appear to be on the cusp of a major diplomatic realignment, with the Trump administration reportedly pausing arms sales to Taiwan. This move is sparking fears on the self-governed island that it could become a bargaining chip in a larger “grand bargain” involving the future of the popular social media app TikTok.
Signs of a potential thaw emerged as a rare bipartisan delegation of U.S. lawmakers met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Beijing. Li hailed the visit as an “ice-breaking” moment in strained bilateral relations, while the U.S. delegation head, Rep. Adam Smith, stressed the urgent need to restore military-to-military communication between the world’s two most powerful nations to ensure peaceful coexistence.
The delegation’s visit coincided with reports that President Donald Trump has put a hold on American arms deliveries to Taiwan. This development follows a lengthy phone call between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, where the two leaders reportedly made “tangible progress” on trade disputes, the flow of fentanyl, and the fate of TikTok. While official readouts conspicuously omitted any mention of Taiwan, analysts believe a significant trade-off is underway.
According to media analysis, Beijing may be willing to cede control of the highly popular video app TikTok to American investors in exchange for crucial concessions from Washington. For China, securing a shift in U.S. policy on its most sensitive issues, such as Taiwan’s status and U.S. restrictions on high-tech exports, far outweighs control over a social media platform.
The potential shift has sent shockwaves through Taipei. Taiwan’s government, which rejects Beijing’s claims of sovereignty, has heavily relied on U.S. weaponry to deter a potential invasion from the mainland. The reported pause on a congressionally approved arms package has amplified concerns about the reliability of U.S. security guarantees, forcing the island to ramp up its own defense spending, with plans to reach 5% of GDP by 2030.
This flurry of diplomatic activity is setting the stage for a high-stakes summit between Trump and Xi at the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in South Korea. A subsequent state visit by Trump to China is also being discussed, signaling that both sides are seriously exploring a new framework for their complex relationship, with the security of Taiwan and the ownership of TikTok at its very center.