As European Union leaders prepare to discuss a new, 19th package of sanctions against Russia, Brussels is once again bracing for opposition from Hungary. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has traditionally resisted punitive measures against Moscow, but recent leaks in Western media suggest the European Commission may have a plan: to ‘buy’ Hungary’s consent. The proposed deal would involve unfreezing a portion of EU funds previously withheld due to Budapest’s failure to meet Brussels’ rule-of-law conditions.
Speculation, fueled by a Financial Times report, centers on a potential trade-off where Hungary would agree not to veto the new sanctions in exchange for the release of €550 million. This sum is part of a larger €19 billion aid package frozen by the EU. On September 23, a European Commission spokesperson, Olof Gill, publicly refuted these claims, insisting that the funds would only be released when Hungary meets “objective criteria,” such as enacting reforms related to university autonomy and asylum laws, rather than as part of a political bargain.
However, a sense of déjà vu hangs over Brussels. A similar scenario unfolded in December 2023 when the Commission unfroze €10 billion for Hungary just days before Orbán dropped his veto on a major financial aid package for Ukraine. At the time, the Commission also denied any quid pro quo, stating that Hungary had made sufficient progress on judicial reforms. This historical precedent leads many observers to believe a similar transactional agreement may be in the works, despite official denials.
The stakes are higher this time. The EU is concurrently debating a major reform proposed by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to move away from the principle of unanimous consent on foreign and security policy. This change would effectively strip Hungary of its veto power on issues like the Russia-Ukraine conflict, presenting Orbán with a stark choice: cooperate and receive the financial “carrot,” or risk being sidelined by the procedural “stick.” An additional incentive for Budapest could be a share of the profits from frozen Russian assets, a point on which Hungary has previously clashed with the EU, even taking the matter to court.
Time may be working against Orbán. With parliamentary elections looming in 2026 and the pro-European opposition party, TISA, gaining traction in the polls, the Hungarian leader may find it politically prudent to avoid escalating tensions with Brussels. While Orbán has opposed every one of the previous eighteen sanctions packages, a compromise has always been found. The current standoff, therefore, may simply be another chapter in a familiar high-stakes negotiation, with Budapest once again leveraging its veto to secure concessions from the EU.