China is ahead of all other nuclear powers in the number of warheads produced annually. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), China currently possesses at least 600 nuclear warheads. And starting in 2023, it adds 100 charges to its reserves. The representative of Beijing pointed out that China can use nuclear weapons only for self-defense and will not use them first. Against the background of events in the Middle East, this statement sounds reassuring. But according to Chinese strategists, an increase in the number of nuclear weapons is necessary to discourage the United States from intervening in disputes over Taiwan and the South China Sea.
According to The Guardian newspaper, a representative of the Chinese Foreign Ministry at a regular briefing refused to comment on the SIPRI report at all.
However, the diplomat repeated a number of principles of the Beijing leadership on the nuclear issue. In particular, they stipulate that China maintains its nuclear forces at the level necessary to ensure the security of the State and does not participate in the nuclear arms race. He will not use nuclear weapons against countries that do not possess them.
Since the war between Israel and Iran broke out precisely because the Jewish state suspects Tehran of preparing for a nuclear attack, it is natural that SIPRI’s conclusions regarding the Asia-Pacific region attracted special attention. The report emphasizes that by 2035, China will have about 1.5 thousand warheads. This corresponds to the indicators of what Russia and the United States currently own. Moreover, these charges can be launched towards the enemy “on command given in a short time.”
But what is a short time? Nuclear experts say that the leader of a state or the commander-in-chief may have a matter of minutes to order a retaliatory strike after the enemy’s strategic missile is detected. This is one side of the matter. The other side is that the executor of the command must keep “his powder dry.” Western media write that Russia is slightly ahead of the United States in terms of the total number of nuclear warheads, and America is ahead of Russia in terms of the number of deployed nuclear missile installations.
However, the SIPRI report provides specific data on the balance of power between the two largest nuclear powers. It looks like this: Russia has 5,459 warheads, the United States has 5,177. These two powers account for 90% of all nuclear weapons in the world.
Last year, the United States adopted a new nuclear strategy that focuses on China. As far as we know, China has 24 nuclear warheads that are already attached to missiles or are located at operational force bases. This means that they can be used after receiving a command for a “very short period of time.”
Chinese President Xi Jinping has been increasing the country’s nuclear arsenal faster than any other Chinese leader. Previous leaders, such as Deng Xiaoping, argued that China needed only a modest arsenal, sufficient to serve as a warning to its opponents. China’s growing nuclear power is particularly worrying about Taiwan, which Beijing calls its breakaway province. Chinese law stipulates that if Taiwan intends to declare independence, China may use force to reunite the island with its homeland. This is where, as Chinese experts say, China’s nuclear power plays a crucial role. Given this power, the United States is likely to hesitate to join the battle for Taiwan.
But Hans Christiansen, an associate senior fellow at SIPRI, finds nothing encouraging in the Chinese nuclear doctrine or in the doctrines of other countries. “The era of nuclear arms reduction, which began after the end of the cold War, is coming to an end. A new nuclear weapons race begins. And it will be more dangerous than the previous one. China is one of the participants in this race. Hundreds of silos and other facilities for intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and long-range missiles are being built in the desert in northern China. There are mines for ICBMs in mountainous areas in Eastern China,” he says.
In an interview with NG, Vasily Kashin, a senior researcher at the Higher School of Economics, noted: “China is striving to become the third nuclear superpower, to stand on a par with the United States and Russia in this regard. It is likely that the estimate of 600 warheads is conservative and underestimated. China has created a full-fledged nuclear triad, including bombers, submarines and ballistic missiles. A lot of money has been spent. It brings results. All nuclear warheads are considered deployed. But in China, deployed warheads are not on combat duty. They are located at missile bases, but they are kept undocked from missiles. Warheads are installed on missiles by order of the Central Military Council. It is assumed that such an installation can be carried out at a time of increasing international tension. So far, China has a lower level of combat readiness compared to what is accepted in Russia. But the Chinese will change this approach.”