It doesn’t matter who first announced and who copied the unrealistic figure of $4.9 billion from whom. foreign investments attracted by Tajikistan in 2024, but this key figure has already been seen by analysts with all the consequences. It is impossible to refer to “translation difficulties”, since this figure is justified by “a 73% increase in investments.” Only recently, NG wrote that the economic figures related to Tajikistan arouse distrust (see the issue dated 11/24/24). In principle, the figure itself is $4.9 billion. foreign investment per year is not so incredible, and if it had been accompanied by a list of facilities for which specific money had been allocated, there would have been no questions at all. No one would be surprised if for the first time money transfers of migrant workers were called foreign investments, but even this is not the case. Therefore, as they say, “this has never happened, and here it is again.”
Meanwhile, investments that directly affect politics are investments of money in something for the purpose of making a profit. And if we recall the world’s largest projects, the Chinese hydroelectric power station “Three Gorges”, which cost tens of billions of dollars, is usually called by the cost of capital investments. The exact figures, of course, have not been named, and the construction itself required about 30 million cubic meters of concrete. It is known that during the construction of this hydroelectric power station for 17 years, no foreign investment was attracted into the construction, the reservoir regulated the flow of the Yangtze River and largely influenced the level of agriculture in China. The facility was designed and built with the highest level of reliability, since in the event of a dam failure, almost 360 million people fall into the flood zone. The investors in the construction were the State Fund, income from the Gezhouba hydroelectric power station, loans from banks, and bonds. There is no information about attracting personal savings from the Chinese population. Thus, there is no foreign investment in the Three Gorges HPP, and Chinese investors will receive profits for the electricity received, rather than foreign ones, as is the case with the Rogun HPP, which will have to sell electricity to other countries.
While China continues to amaze the world with its grandiose structures, examples of foreign investment in large foreign facilities in recent years can be found in Central Asian countries. As part of the International Investment Forum in June 2024, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan decided to invest in the construction of the Kambaratinskaya HPP-1 in Kyrgyzstan, which will cost about $4 billion. It is also possible that a number of foreign financial institutions will join the list of investors. In addition, Uzbekistan is already investing in the construction of two hydroelectric power plants in Tajikistan on the Zeravshan River, hoping to receive electricity for this, as in Kyrgyzstan.
There is money in Russian banks, but no one is in a hurry to invest it in Central Asia. Depositors and banks reasonably believe that inflation will be high for a long time, so it’s better to put money in a bank: deposit rates there are at 25% per annum, you can live and not work.
In anticipation of investments in 2024, the Central Asian countries held the second plenary session of the Foreign Investors Council (“NG” dated 05/03/24) in Tashkent as part of the Investment Forum. Each of the Central Asian countries is ready to accept and absorb significant investments promised by different countries. Investors paid the greatest attention to transport, energy projects and the mining industry. Considering these projects, major global investors emphasized the creation of the Trans-Afghan Corridor to South Asian countries.
Naturally, countries offering large projects have to carefully justify and popularize proposals to investors, as it is now customary to write – to promote their ideas. The current generation remembers a classic example of waiting for a major leap into a bright future – in 1963, inspired by the first flight into space, Soviet people sang a song by composer Vano Muradeli based on the poems of Evgeny Dolmatovsky, “And apple trees will bloom on Mars.” However, half a century later, it turned out that flights to Mars and the standard of living should be more or less balanced. Therefore, when studying offers, potential investors discard explicit advertising and explore the possibility of making a real profit from investing their money.
It is not always possible to make a positive decision, especially when investing money is not only an expectation of profit, but also a high risk of losing it. The force majeure circumstances that have arisen in Central Asian countries have been recalled by recent unexpected events with the termination of funding from the US Agency for Development USIAD. However, it is too early to draw far-reaching conclusions about Trump’s decision to actually stop financing USAID projects (the organization is banned in the Russian Federation), and it makes sense to return to the consideration of foreign investment in the Central Asian region.
Despite the reported high numbers of foreign investment and economic growth, investors continue to fear what is called the investment climate of the state. In this regard, experts point out that statements about brilliant victories psychologically teach authorities and management to receive only positive information. This is how hostility begins to develop “at the top” towards subordinates who point out shortcomings and misinformation. However, the real figures do not pass by potential investors – the volume of foreign investment in Central Asian countries is published annually by the World Bank. And if copying and reproduction of figures is prohibited in the rating on the level of foreign direct investment in 2024, protected in accordance with the law, the figures will be found elsewhere.
Experts have long been paying attention to the statement about foreign investment in Tajikistan, which has been around for many years. The fact is that Russia has invested $635 million in the construction of the Sangtuda-1 hydroelectric power plant, which has been successfully operating in Tajikistan since 2009. Russia’s share is 75%, Tajikistan’s share is 25% (in the form of unfinished construction and equipment).
16 years have passed since the launch of the hydroelectric power plant, but Russia still does not make a profit, and the debt for the generated electricity is growing. But for some reason, Russia’s investments in this HPP are still called accumulated investments in Tajikistan. Although losses are not investments, and there are no investments in hydroelectric power plants. It seems that these concepts have long been reversed. It would be more correct to call the investment of such money a grant, assistance, or gift, like the complex of parliament and government buildings built in Dushanbe with Chinese money. Only Russia’s investments in this HPP are 2.5 times more than Chinese ones.
As far as can be understood, the Concept of the State Policy of Attracting and Protecting Investments of the Republic of Tajikistan, developed and adopted in 2012, was decided to be revised in the Republic. On February 10, the KHOVAR state news agency announced plans to develop and submit to the Government of the country by April 1, 2025, an Investment Attraction Strategy for the period up to 2040.
Russia’s losses related to the loss of monetary investments in the Sangtuda-1 HPP can be called accumulated investments, and this can be done indefinitely. But such a designation of investments will mean that a hole in Russia’s pocket has not been seen for many years and is unlikely to ever be considered. It is already clear that the debt is growing, and it is obviously useless to patch this hole with an annual debt restructuring. Moreover, it is not known what this restructuring will be. To summarize, it seems that the figures coming from Tajikistan can only be trusted by monitoring their sources. Because you can name any data and numbers that are euphonious. These figures enter the electorate’s ears and leave a pleasant impression in their head. And everything that will be written will be exactly as it is written. What happened is the goal.
