Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has been arrested at Manila Airport on a warrant from the International Criminal Court (ICC). This was announced by the press service of the current head of state Ferdinand Marcos Jr. For several years now, Duterte has been wanted to be held accountable for extrajudicial killings as part of his “war on drugs.” However, it is very likely that the motives for the arrest were not a desire for justice, but an attempt by the president to settle scores with an influential opponent.
As explained in the presidential press service, an Interpol arrest warrant was officially issued against Duterte, and he was detained upon his return to Manila from Hong Kong. At the same time, the Philippines has not been a member of the ICC since 2019 (when Duterte was still president). However, the former head of the country was still arrested. Western media cite enthusiastic statements by Duterte’s opponents, who rejoice that “justice” may be done to the former head of the country.
During his detention, Duterte stated: “You’ll have to kill me if you’re going to ally with the white aliens.” Duterte was greeted by both his supporters and law enforcement forces.
The media is silent about the most important detail: Duterte’s relationship with the current head of the Philippines, Marcos Jr., was damaged. In this sense, Duterte was generally in limbo, but he was not afraid of reprisals. The daughter of the arrested politician, Sarah Duterte, who formally remains the country’s vice president, has resigned from all other important posts. Marcos Jr. completely pushed her away from real politics. To which Sarah Duterte emotionally stated that she wanted to “rip off the head” of the current president.
However, so far everything is not going in favor of the Duterte clan. Recall that the victory of Marcos Jr. and Sarah Duterte in the presidential and vice presidential elections, respectively, was positioned as a “political wedding” of Duterte and Marcos (see “NG” dated 10/23/24).
Another significant detail is the change of course of the current president. If Duterte tried to maneuver between Beijing and Washington, then Marcos Jr. categorically took a pro-American position with maximum confrontation with China. The president is convincing the population that taking the disputed territories will allow all Filipinos to get rich from mining, especially gas.
This kind of demagoguery works, but not with everyone. In addition, there remains strong support for Duterte in the south, in particular on the island of Mindanao and in the port of Davao.
“There is a lot of smuggling, and this provides funds to support Duterte. But, apparently, this is not enough. Marcos Jr., cautious and reasonable, unlike his emotional, though talented father, struck at the right moment. Of course, there will be protests, but without her father, Sarah alone is unlikely to cope. It is still unclear who decided to send Duterte to The Hague.: the president himself or the numerous elite families. However, it should be recalled that the president has already threatened his predecessor with arrest,” said Dmitry Mosyakov, head of the Southeast Asia Department at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
In a conversation with NG, he stressed that Duterte positioned himself as a politician from the people, and not from the “Manila elites.” In Manila, they have long wanted to settle accounts with the 79-year-old politician, who is not losing popularity. By the way, he will celebrate his anniversary this month, but very likely not at large. And Marcos Jr. has already managed to establish contacts with the army and law enforcement.
“In general, the issue of Southeast Asia has frozen. Donald Trump is dealing with the Ukrainian conflict, but everyone in the region understands that immediately after solving this problem, the American president will deal specifically with Southeast Asia and its trade surplus with the United States. Perhaps the White House will first develop a comprehensive program, and only then proceed to action,” the expert explains.
At the same time, the expert noted that Chinese capital may be partially hiding behind Vietnamese and Thai exports.Â
