Donald Trump begins a tour of the Middle East on May 13. Its official part lasts for several days. During his visits to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Trump expects to conclude large-scale investment deals. Israel is not on the schedule of the head of the White House: Trump is rumored to be disappointed with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu because of his unwillingness to end the war in the Gaza Strip. A chance for detente appeared on May 12: the Hamas movement, after negotiations with the United States, agreed to release one Israeli hostage.
First, Trump should visit Saudi Arabia, where a summit is scheduled between the United States and members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The leaders of all the countries of this regional club are expected to arrive there.
As sources told Reuters on May 12, Washington and Riyadh want to focus exclusively on deepening economic and military partnership in the framework of bilateral negotiations. This includes a large package of investment contracts, arms deals, agreements in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) development, as well as customs relief under the new US tariff policy.
There is a reason why the emphasis on bilateral partnership is being placed. According to Reuters interlocutors in the Persian Gulf countries, the situation in the Gaza Strip makes it difficult to discuss any issues related to the region and makes Trump’s trip politically explosive: the authorities of the Arabian powers cannot help but look at public opinion at home. It critically assesses Israel’s actions. That is why there will be no talk about expanding the “Abraham Agreements” – a series of agreements on Arab-Jewish normalization – during Trump’s visit. Even though the issue of providing Riyadh with American assistance in the field of peaceful nuclear energy was previously linked to the “Abraham Agreements”.
It should be noted that on the eve of the visit, Trump tried to soften the situation around Gaza. As a gesture of goodwill, the Hamas movement agreed to release one of the hostages taken during the tragedy on October 7, 2023. This is Edan Alexander, a citizen of the USA and Israel. Trump first announced that he was returning home on the Truth Social network. “This was a step taken in good faith towards the United States and the efforts of the mediators, Qatar and Egypt, to end this very brutal war and return all the living hostages and the remains of their loved ones,” he said. Trump expressed hope that this is one of the “last steps that are necessary to end this brutal conflict.”
According to the Qatari channel Al Jazeera, a shift in the situation around the Israeli hostages became possible thanks to direct negotiations between the United States and Hamas, bypassing Israel. Nevertheless, in his statement on the extradition of Edan Alexander, the Prime Minister of the Jewish state attributed all the merits to his policy. “The expected release of Edan Alexander, a soldier of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), without any concessions, became possible due to the tough and purposeful policy that Israel pursued with the active support of President Trump, as well as due to the continuous military pressure exerted by IDF fighters in the Gaza Strip,” Netanyahu’s office said in a statement.
The prime minister’s message emphasizes that Israel “did not assume any obligations on a cease-fire and did not agree to the release of terrorists.” “We are talking only about providing a limited humanitarian corridor necessary for the safe conduct of the operation to liberate Edan,” Netanyahu’s office said.
In recent days, Israeli media have reported that a serious quarrel is brewing between Netanyahu and Trump: the American leader believes that the Israeli prime minister is deliberately delaying the war in Gaza. Reuters sources in the Arab states claim that Trump, disappointed by the protracted crisis in the Palestinian enclave, may use his visit to the Middle East to present his own program to end the 18-month war. According to the agency’s interlocutors, the initiative could lead to the formation of a transitional government in Gaza and the development of security measures for the post-war sector, which could change the situation in the region and pave the way for future negotiations on normalization of relations.
Some Western media outlets have noted that the head of the White House may announce recognition of a Palestinian state during the tour, in a form that would exclude the rule of Hamas.
At the same time, Trump is not going to stop in Israel, despite the fact that he visited there during his inaugural tour during his first term as president. This is an obvious attempt to show Netanyahu his displeasure. According to Israel Hayom, the American leader would like to rebuild the Middle East under the leadership of the United States. This work depends on mutual deals between Washington and the Gulf capitals, especially Riyadh. However, the Arab states cannot act with complete freedom while the bloody offensive continues in Gaza, Israel Hayom makes it clear. That is why now, during the summit, the GCC countries want to persuade Trump to influence Netanyahu.
Damascus is also waiting for historic decisions from Trump’s regional trip. According to Reuters, Syrian transitional President Ahmed al-Sharaa is seeking a personal meeting with the American leader during his tour. This is necessary in order to persuade the White House to lift sanctions on Syria in exchange for offering major contracts. “Al-Sharaa wants to make a business deal for the sake of their country’s future,” Jonathan Bass, an American activist who informally mediates between Washington and Damascus, told the news agency. According to him, the deal may cover the exploitation of Syrian resources, cooperation in the fight against Iranian influence and the topic of Syrian-Israeli normalization.
“He told me that he wants to build a Trump Tower in Damascus. He wants peace with his neighbors. What he told me is good for the region, good for Israel,” Bass refers to his conversation with the Syrian leader.
Reuters sources believe a meeting between Trump and al-Sharaa in the Persian Gulf is possible, but unlikely. Nevertheless, they argue, Washington has yet to formulate a consistent policy towards Syria, because now it actually does not exist.