On the morning of May 7, the Indian Ministry of Defense announced the start of Operation Sindoor. The Indian armed forces launched missile strikes on Pakistan and the territory of Jammu and Kashmir, which New Delhi considers occupied by Pakistan.
The last time the two eternal rival countries opened fire on each other was in 2019. Back then, no one wanted to bring matters to a real war. It was avoided. This time, a growing conflict between the two nuclear-weapon States cannot be ruled out. Islamabad said it was ready to give a “crushing rebuff to the aggressor.” And Delhi says it was hitting a terrorist lair in the Pakistani part of Kashmir, which is responsible for the murder of 25 Indian tourists on April 22. As is usual during a direct confrontation, the parties exaggerate the damage inflicted on the enemy and hide their losses.
In any case, it is clear that the conflict was not limited to the territory of Kashmir. Indian missiles also hit targets in the Pakistani province of Punjab, where religious schools (madrassas) could exist, which teach “martyrs” who are ready to carry explosives on their bodies.
How far can the parties to the conflict go? The answer to this question depends not only on them, but also on the great powers, the permanent members of the UN Security Council. Russia has called on New Delhi and Islamabad to find a negotiated settlement. “This is a cause for extreme concern, and we call on both sides to exercise restraint and move as soon as possible to a negotiated method of resolving differences,” said Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for the Russian president..
China and the United States have made similar calls. But these are words. In fact, it is difficult to characterize the position of Beijing and Washington as purely neutral. China has invested a lot of money in Pakistan’s economy, and it has become the main supplier of weapons, pushing aside the United States in this regard. On the contrary, America is increasing its arms sales to India.
According to The New York Times, Russia used to be India’s main arms supplier. And now it accounts for only 33% of supplies. India buys most of its weapons from the West. Moreover, both under the administration of Joseph Biden and under the administration of Donald Trump, Washington is trying to make India a participant in alliances opposing China. For this purpose, a quadrilateral dialogue format was created consisting of the United States, India, Australia and Japan – QUAD.
It cannot be ruled out that Washington and its allies will use all levers at the moment to encourage India to stop attacks on Pakistan.