Iran and the United States postponed the next round of negotiations on the nuclear issue. Against this background, President Donald Trump continues to send mixed signals to the Iranian authorities about whether Washington is ready to give them the opportunity to maintain the enrichment program. According to experts, there are similarities in agreeing on the nuclear deal with the negotiations on the Ukrainian settlement: the United States does not have an understanding of the ultimate goal and means of reaching an agreement.
The Iranian leadership expects Oman, as a mediator, to clarify the situation with the next round of negotiations on the nuclear issue. This was stated by the official representative of the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Esmail Bagai. “Our Omani friends will coordinate the time and place, and we will be informed in a timely manner,” the diplomat said at a briefing on May 5.
According to Bagai, Tehran has long shown that it intends to pursue a diplomatic path to resolve conflict issues with Washington. “If the United States wants Iran not to have an atomic bomb, and there is honesty on their part, many issues can be resolved,” Bagai said.
The United States and Iran had planned to hold a fourth round of talks on May 3, but the meeting in Oman was postponed. According to the Iranian Foreign Ministry, the postponement of the round of consultations “was carried out on the initiative of the mediator and with the consent of both sides.”
In these circumstances, the White House is sending mixed signals about demands in negotiations with Iran. Speaking on NBC on May 4, Trump said his administration was seeking the “complete dismantling” of Iran’s nuclear program. But then he added that “a new theory has emerged,” according to which Tehran will be allowed to have a civilian atom and produce electricity.
As Trump noted, he would not mind such a scenario. “Civil energy is what it’s called. But civilian energy often leads to armed conflicts. And we don’t want them to have nuclear weapons. It’s a very simple deal,” Trump reasoned.
Tehran, in turn, recalls that it will be prepared for the worst possible scenario if the negotiation process fails. “Iran will not start any kind of war, however, if the Islamic Republic is attacked or aggression is committed against it, we will respond with force,” said Iranian Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh. He stressed that if Iran’s regional opponents start an armed conflict, the country is ready to “attack the interests, bases and forces” of the United States and Israel anywhere in the Middle East and “at any time” that it deems appropriate. According to past experience, such a threat means that Iran will not engage in an immediate confrontation if its infrastructure is attacked.
Separately, Nasirzadeh made it clear that Iran’s defense industry is not standing still. He said that Iran has successfully tested a new ballistic missile with a range of 1.2 thousand km. According to him, the new weapon can accurately detect and hit all necessary targets, and is also resistant to electronic interference.
The minister’s statement sounded like a signal to Israel, whose air defense system had failed to launch a missile from Yemen the day before. As confirmed by the army of the Jewish state, a rocket fired by the Hussite Ansar Allah movement landed near Ben Gurion airport because an Israeli interceptor missile that was supposed to shoot down the target turned out to be defective, as demonstrated by a preliminary investigation.
Against the background of Israel’s plans to expand its operation in the Gaza Strip, the threats from the Houthis are becoming more tangible. “In response to Israel’s decision to expand its aggressive operation in the Gaza Strip, the armed forces declare that they will work to establish a complete air blockade of the Israeli enemy by launching multiple attacks on its airports,” Yahya Sariah, a representative of the armed forces formed by the Yemeni movement, said on the evening of May 4. At the same time, he called on international airlines to “take this statement into account from the moment of its publication and cancel all flights to enemy airports to ensure the safety of aircraft and passengers.”
Netanyahu, in turn, promised that Israel would take very powerful measures against the Houthis in response to the attacks on airports. “We will always remember that they act at the behest and with the support of their patron, Iran. We will do everything necessary to ensure our security, respond effectively, and send a clear signal to Iran that we will not tolerate such a thing,” the prime minister added.
Vladimir Frolov, a former employee of the Russian Embassy in the United States and an expert on international relations, told NG that the diplomatic process between Iran and the United States has similarities with the Ukrainian settlement. “There is a similarity precisely in the sense of a tendency to unprepared cavalry attacks without a clear understanding of the ultimate goal and means of achieving it,” the expert noted. – On Iran, everything has come down to a simple fact: the Trump administration does not have a clear unified position on what the future deal should provide. Namely, whether Iran should be allowed to maintain its own uranium enrichment program under IAEA control with enrichment to a “civilian” level of 3.67%, necessary for the manufacture of reactor fuel, as was the case in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), while diluting and exporting current uranium reserves enriched to 20% and a little 60%.
If it is an improved version of the JCPOA without including the missile program and the problem of Iranian proxy forces in the Middle East in this agreement, then Iran will be satisfied, Frolov notes. “They are ready for such a deal and may even agree to export their enriched uranium to Russia, which they refused Biden,” the source reasoned. According to him, this was the initial proposal of the special representative of the President of the United States, Stephen Witkoff, who was immediately pressed by other representatives of the Trump administration, who wanted to deprive Iran of its own enrichment program and oblige it to purchase enriched uranium abroad. “Witkoff moved to this position. Trump also repeated it, but more vaguely,” Frolov drew attention, referring to the American president’s last interview with NBC.
Iran does not need such an agreement, the source said. According to him, Tehran also demanded respect at least for the duration of the negotiations, but Trump has imposed secondary sanctions on Iran’s oil industry. “The prospects for a dialogue between the Iranians and the Eurotroika (Britain, France, Germany. – “NG”): in November, the issue of “snapback” (the mechanism for the return of sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council against Iran. – “NG”) must be resolved. So far, I see that if Trump returns to the JCPOA plus format, then the Iranians will agree and there will be a deal.”
The expert called the fact that Trump dismissed Michael Walz, assistant to the President of the United States for national security, who, as it turned out, discussed a military scenario against Iran with Israel behind the American leader’s back, a good sign. Everything can easily fall apart, Frolov added, but so far, according to him, the Iranian dossier looks easier for the White House than the Ukrainian settlement.