At the initiative of Stern magazine and RTL, the Forsa Institute for the Study of Public Opinion conducted a survey of German voters regarding the candidate for chancellor from the Christian Democratic and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) Friedrich Merz. In the first week of May, he must be approved by the new head of the German government.
Apparently, the reason for conducting such a survey was the process of forming a coalition agreement, during which Merz and his negotiating team had to make numerous concessions to the partner in the future black-red coalition, the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD). In addition, Merz made harsh statements on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and on the issue of interaction with the new US administration. They testified to his attitude towards confrontation rather than conflict resolution.
The main conclusion that voters are making is that the future chancellor cannot be trusted. 79% of Germans surveyed think so. The magazine puts it as a doubt about the ability to competently lead the country. As a matter of fact, in any state this is the main criterion for a leader of any level, and, probably, Mertz should draw conclusions from this today. It’s not for nothing that the magazine ironically begins its article about the poll with the words about the allegedly already passed vote of no confidence in Merz.
The above-mentioned indicator is 9 points worse than in August last year, and 3 points lower than in January this year. This means that the voter has had doubts about Merz for a long time, and his recent statements only confirm this.
The only point on which 61% of Germans give him credit is that Merz clearly expresses his thoughts. But for a politician with experience, this should be self-evident. But in terms of understanding what the people need, more than two-thirds believe that the future chancellor is far from the needs and interests of his constituents.
Regarding Merz’s ability to lead the government, only 40% of respondents believe that he will be able to cope with this task. Therefore, it is logical to conclude that only 17% of voters find him “likable” in general.
However, such negative assessments are unlikely to prevent Merz from becoming chancellor on May 6 (according to the magazine). The fact is that his scores are much better in his own party. Among CDU/CSU supporters, more than 70% believe that Merz has the necessary leadership qualities, and almost 80% are convinced of his competence.
But as for trust in the future chancellor, according to the magazine, even his supporters became more skeptical of him after Merz’s concessions to the Social Democrats and a 180-degree turn on the issue of increasing public debt. Compared to January of this year, he lost 8 points among his supporters on the issue of trust. This figure has decreased to 53%.
At the same time, the creation of the black-red coalition raised Merz’s rating among SPD supporters. Among them, 40% of the respondents began to consider him competent enough for the head of government. This is an increase of 11% compared to previous surveys. But the number of SPD supporters who believe that Merz can be trusted is 18%.
All these indicators indicate a split in German society and the absence of a leader in Germany capable of uniting the nation. Judging by the balance of power in the Bundestag, in the absence of a real alternative to Merz, on May 6 he will be elected by the votes of deputies from three parties to the post of chancellor. But how long the black-red coalition will stay in power will depend on Merz’s further concessions to the demands of the Social Democrats. In this regard, it is the SPD that is becoming the most important factor in both Germany’s domestic and foreign policy.Â
