According to official statistics, in 2023, Japan’s population decreased by 861,237 people, or 0.7%. At the same time, there was a record high influx of foreign citizens – 329,535 people. Against the background of the continuing decline in the birth rate in the country, the proportion of the non-Japanese population has reached the highest level in history.
There is now the most significant drop in the number of residents since the beginning of demographic monitoring in 1968. According to the Ministry of the Interior, as of January 1, 2024, the total population of Japan was 121,561,801 people. It peaked in 2009 and has been declining for 15 consecutive years since then.
Meanwhile, the number of foreign citizens living in the Land of the Rising Sun was 3,323,374. This figure exceeded 3 million for the first time since such data became available in 2013. The opposite trends are based on a decrease in the birth rate in the country. It continues to accelerate and generates an increasing need for foreign labor. In the context of globalization, this inevitably leads to a breakdown of the psychological attitude towards the nation’s self-isolation that has persisted since the Middle Ages.
A visible proof of this was the fact that there was a young man from Nepal at the reception desk in the Tokyo hotel where I stayed in March, and young men from Myanmar worked as “maids”. They all spoke Japanese quite well.
The number of births registered in Japan in 2023 was 729,367, which is 42,434 fewer than in 2022, and is the lowest figure ever. At the same time, a record number of deaths was registered – 1,579,727. This figure increased by 14,602 deaths compared to the previous year. The natural growth rate, or the difference between the number of births and deaths, was minus 850,360.
As the birth rate in Japan decreases, the number of people of working age is also decreasing, which inevitably affects the economy. The number of Japanese aged 15 to 64 in 2023 was 71,741,119, which is 521,056 fewer than a year earlier. This figure is only slightly higher than the number of people aged 65 and over. This group of the population is usually retired and, therefore, depends on the employed population in terms of social security. Thus, the moral and material burden of Japanese workers on the maintenance of older generations increases.
Currently, 29.4% of the Japanese population is elderly. In 2023, the number of people aged 75 and over exceeded 20 million for the first time since 1950, when comparable data began to be collected. People of this age make up 16.1% of the total population, which is a record high. At the same time, a record low of 14,173,000 children under the age of 15 was recorded. Children accounted for only 11.4% of the total population, which is also an unprecedented minimum.
In this context, the population of Tokyo Metropolitan Prefecture increased by 3,933 people in 2023, or 0.03%, compared to the previous year. Tokyo was the only one of all 47 prefectures in the country where an increase was recorded, bringing the total population to over 14 million. The most significant factor in this was the so-called social growth, or the net influx of people moving to Tokyo from other regions. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the influx of people to Tokyo slowed down as many residents of the capital moved to rural areas. But now it is increasing again.
However, the population of the Kanto metropolitan area, which in addition to Tokyo includes the neighboring prefectures of Saitama, Chiba and Kanagawa, decreased by 0.19%. This reduction has been observed for the third year in a row.
The industrially developed southwestern Kansai region, led by the second most important city of Osaka, also saw a decrease of 0.63%. In the central Chuo region, headed by the third most important city of Nagoya, there was also a decrease of 0.71%. Of all the prefectures, northern Akita Prefecture lost the most people – 1.83% compared to the previous year.
It is noteworthy that Tokyo’s population growth is taking place despite the soaring cost of both residential and commercial real estate. Land prices in Tokyo increased by an average of 7.3% in 2024. As of January 1 of this year, real estate prices in the capital have been rising for the fourth year in a row. Their growth rates also exceeded last year’s. Demand for condominiums, especially in central Tokyo, remained high, and the growing number of foreign tourists supported the upward trend in consumer prices in the capital. Commercial real estate prices have also increased by double digits for the first time since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.
The Japan Times explains the phenomenon that while the rest of Japan is shrinking, Tokyo is growing due to the availability of jobs, public transport and entertainment in the capital. This phenomenon has been called “ikkoku shushu” (“unipolar concentration”), which in this context means Tokyo’s increasing dominance in population, industry, and resources. It makes it very difficult for local administrations, especially in rural areas, to deal with such phenomena as population decline and aging, falling birth rates, and, as a result, the decline of the local economy. Some even call the capital a black hole that consumes everything.
Realizing the crucial importance of the task of “saving the nation,” Japan’s ruling circles have been struggling for many years to solve demographic problems, but so far without much success. According to the influential electronic publication Asia Times, the sharp decline in the birth rate in Japan is not just a demographic crisis, it is a political failure of the leadership, which has no simple solution.
The publication notes that 720,988 were born in 2024, the lowest figure in 125 years. It revealed the impotence of the Government and the short-sightedness of those in power. According to Asia Times, Japan’s leaders are not just facing a declining population, they cannot ensure the country’s long-term viability. Their strategies are based on outdated ideas about work, family, and social structure.
Politicians have long believed that financial incentives would be enough to encourage married couples to have children. But the constant decline in the birth rate has proved that it’s not just about money. Deeper forces are at play, including cultural shifts, economic pressures, and harsh working conditions that make parenting an unattractive prospect for many young Japanese.
If Japan fails to adapt, it faces not only demographic decline, but also economic stagnation in a world where the size of the workforce is becoming an increasingly important indicator of competitiveness. For Japan’s political leaders, this should be the moment of truth. Their continued inaction will be considered the reason why Japan’s demographic crisis has turned into an economic and social collapse. Without a fundamental overhaul of the labor force support system in Japan, any attempts to increase the birth rate will be futile, Asia Times believes.
Anyway, it is obvious that the demographic crisis Japan is currently experiencing is no less a problem for the country in the long term than many challenges and threats in the international arena, in the field of economy and security.
