US President Donald Trump is going to impose import duties against most countries on Wednesday, April 2, which he calls the “day of liberation” of America from freeloaders. The main battle of the new trade war is planned between the world’s largest economies – the United States and the European Union.
Trump promised to present on Wednesday a large-scale tariff plan that should bring jobs back to the United States and fill the federal budget with trillions of dollars in new revenue. In his Address to Congress on March 4, he explained why he relies on the customs tariff and import duties.: “Tariffs are not only about protecting American jobs, protecting the soul of our country. Tariffs are a way to make America a rich country again, to make America a great country again.”
He made his first attempt to impose duties two weeks after coming to the White House, announcing punitive measures against goods from Canada, Mexico and China. In early February, duties on Canadian and Mexican imports were suspended a few hours before they took effect after the leaders of these countries promised to strengthen border security to stop the flow of illegal migrants and the import of drugs into the United States. But on March 4, the duties were introduced. However, most of them operated for only a few hours, after which the White House unexpectedly retreated for another month.
And now the duties that Trump intends to announce will apply to all countries, Bloomberg reports. However, the most likely option, as noted by The Washington Post, involves the imposition of tariffs on goods from 15 countries and territories. The Trump administration considers them the “worst trading partners” of the United States, although they account for almost 90% of American imports.
The White House has not yet specified which tariffs will be imposed, how they will be calculated, or what countries need to do to get possible exemptions. We only know about the 25 percent duties on cars manufactured outside the United States, which Trump announced on March 26. He also threatened to impose 200 percent duties on European wines, champagne and other alcoholic beverages in response to the European Union’s decision to impose a 50 percent tariff on American whiskey.
According to Trump, the additional duties are being imposed as part of a policy of “reciprocal tariffs” aimed at eliminating trade imbalances. “We cannot allow other countries to rip us off,” the US president stressed, saying that the new wave of tariffs would be the toughest in recent decades.
At the same time, the White House made it clear that “mutual tariffs” for each country could be the starting point for future negotiations. This situation is of high concern in the European Union, whose trade with the United States accounts for almost a third of world trade.
When asked by NG how the United States intends to introduce new duties, Alexey Portansky, a professor at the Higher School of Economics and a leading researcher at IMEMO RAS, replied: “According to the explanation of the US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, each country will be assigned a certain index reflecting the level of its duties. For some countries, the index may be relatively low, while for others it may be quite high. Some countries will be able to avoid increased tariffs if a deal is concluded with them in advance. There are 15 countries that have been disrespectfully called “dirty spots” – significant duties will be imposed on their goods. This group may include the EU, China, Mexico, Vietnam, Ireland, Germany, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Canada, India, Thailand, Italy, Switzerland and Malaysia.”
According to the expert, however, it remains unclear exactly how “mutual tariffs” will be determined in Washington. According to estimates by economists at the Swiss financial holding company UBS Group AG, the total number of individual mutual tariffs under the country-to-country scheme should be approximately 2.5 million. Obviously, it is almost impossible to calculate such a volume before April 2. Consequently, there will most likely be no drastic large-scale changes in US trade policy on the specified “liberation day”. “In addition, the political and administrative style demonstrated by Trump suggests that everything can still change several times,” Portansky believes.
Brussels does not intend to leave Washington’s actions unanswered. The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, called the introduction of duties “bad news for businesses and even worse for consumers.”
Outgoing German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that the EU wants to cooperate with the United States, but is ready to respond with a united front to American duties. “If the United States does not leave us a choice, as, for example, in the case of duties on steel and aluminum, we, as the EU, will react as a whole,” Scholz was quoted as saying by Reuters.
French Economy Minister Eric Lombard confirmed the EU’s determination to protect its interests: “We are facing an act of economic aggression. If we don’t respond, it won’t stop. We need to get the Americans to come to the negotiating table.” According to him, Brussels retains the opportunity for dialogue, and negotiations can take place at the IMF’s spring meeting in Washington at the end of April.
If an agreement with the Americans fails, the EU has the opportunity to respond. It seems that this time Brussels has prepared better than in the first term of the Trump presidency, and even loaded the “trade bazooka”. We are talking about the “Anti–Coercion Instrument” (ASI), a legal norm that will allow Europeans to promptly impose punitive measures on products and services of American companies if the United States harms local industry or exerts political pressure. The irony is that the Americans themselves pushed the Europeans to create the ACI to confront China (see NG dated 02/05/25). Now the EU is ready to send a “trade bazooka” to the United States.
“The Americans believe they have the advantage of escalating the trade war, but we also have the opportunity,” an EU diplomat who asked to remain anonymous told The Financial Times in London.
According to him, the EU’s target will be large Silicon Valley technology companies. Retaliatory measures will include restrictions on the intellectual property rights of American IT giants. In particular, Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network may be banned from accessing government contracts.
