There are growing fears in the government of Benjamin Netanyahu that Turkey will deliberately deepen the conflict with Israel over Syria. According to the authorities of the Jewish state, the internal situation in Turkey, which has become electrified due to the arrest of prominent opposition leader Ekrem Imamoglu, may become an impulse. Israeli intelligence agencies admit that at some stage, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will want to divert the electorate’s attention from large-scale repression and switch it to the image of an external enemy, which the Netanyahu government has assumed since the beginning of the war in the Gaza Strip.
Walla reported, citing sources, that Israel has intensified internal discussions about Syria and threats from Turkey. According to him, military and intelligence circles have held several rounds of meetings on whether the northern neighbor will turn into an absolute conductor of Turkish interests. The participants in the consultations came to the conclusion that the danger from Syria is growing, and a clash between Israel and Turkey on the territory of this country is “inevitable.” The conflict, according to the Jewish state, may occur due to Ankara’s desire to limit the freedom of action of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). In this regard, Israel has decided to increase its operations and presence in Syria.
According to Walla, the situation in Turkey fueled the fears of Israelis. Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya announced on March 24 that law enforcement agencies had detained over 1,100 participants in street protests in support of Ekrem Imamoglu, the arrested Istanbul mayor, who is considered one of Erdogan’s main opponents on the domestic political scene.
“123 of our police officers were injured during the demonstrations. Acid, stones, sticks, fireworks, molotov cocktails, axes and knives were seized during the actions. Legal proceedings are continuing against those who attacked the police, damaged public property and threatened the safety of our people,” the minister said.
Israeli intelligence agencies believe that the inability of the Turkish political elite to manage internal risks, which have increased with the arrest of Imamoglu, may lead to Erdogan and his entourage choosing a conflict agenda to distract public attention. According to the Jewish state, in this situation, Israel may become an external enemy for the Turkish leadership to vent its anger on. Moreover, the two countries have effectively severed diplomatic relations due to the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip. These tensions have deepened over Syria: Ankara has actively criticized Netanyahu’s desire to increase his military presence on Syrian territory, calling it a threat to stability in the Middle East.
According to Israeli publications, Turkey has recently reached an advanced stage of negotiations with Syria on a bilateral defense agreement, which involves expanding channels of military and technical assistance to the transitional government in Damascus and the creation of permanent Turkish military bases on Syrian territory. According to the Jewish state, over these weeks, the likelihood has increased that a Turkish air base will appear, for example, in the Palmyra region (Homs province), in the heart of Syria. The possible deployment of Ankara’s fighter jets and air defense systems in this strategically important location may limit the IDF’s operational capabilities, the Netanyahu government fears.
In addition, under the terms of the upcoming agreement, the Syrian transitional government, headed by interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, intends to receive advanced combat drones, radar systems, electronic warfare systems, and Turkish-made air defense systems from its main foreign patron, Turkey.
Recently, the Israeli intelligence community has been increasingly talking about the need for the Russian side to maintain its presence in Syria by finalizing the status of its military bases in the coastal provinces of Latakia and Tartus. This, according to the Jewish state, would help create a buffer against the spreading influence of Turkey and would secure Israel’s borders. As Yediot Ahronot previously reported, Netanyahu has even decided to deepen contacts with Moscow in recent months. According to him, the military secretary of the Israeli Prime Minister, Major General Roman Hoffman, visited the Russian capital specifically for this purpose.
As the Kremlin’s press service reported this month, Russian President Vladimir Putin recently sent a message to Ahmed al-Sharaa, “in which he supported efforts to stabilize the situation in the country as soon as possible in the interests of ensuring its sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity.” And recently, Reuters reported that the Russian side has resumed the supply of diesel fuel to Syria, which, as the news agency notes, is struggling to find a replacement for Iranian oil for its refineries. This probably indicates the growing contacts between Moscow and Damascus and, possibly, the emerging understanding on the issue of Russian military facilities.
As for Israel, it is itself facing growing public discontent at home. One of the reasons is the resumption of the operation in the Gaza Strip on the night of March 18, which, according to The Wall Street Journal, may soon escalate into a full–scale ground offensive. As the Yediot Ahronot newspaper notes, public support for the resumption of the war in Gaza is falling, while the crisis of confidence in the Netanyahu government is only deepening. An important indicator of sentiment, the newspaper writes, is the IDF reservists, who demonstrate “gray insubordination” – they try to quietly avoid attending training camps without openly challenging the orders of the command.
As orientalist Ruslan Suleymanov explained in a conversation with NG, the possible tightening of Turkey’s foreign policy looks like an extreme measure. According to him, so far the situation around Imamoglu is solely an “internal issue and an internal political conflict.” “I believe that the Turkish authorities are betting on marginalizing the protest, accusing the leaders of the Turkish opposition of trying to sow discord and destabilize the situation,” the expert explained. Subsequently, the leaders of the opposition camp who made public calls for protests may be brought to justice, Suleymanov does not exclude.
“But if this option does not work, if it is not possible to restore control over the Turkish streets, then a state of emergency may be imposed,” the source suggested. – This is what happened, say, in 2015, against the background of terrorist attacks. And by the way, this is what happened before the repeat parliamentary elections (in November 2015. – “NG”). If it is not possible to regain control of the situation during the state of emergency or before the introduction of the state of emergency, then some kind of foreign policy adventure cannot be ruled out. But for now, in my opinion, this is still rather a distant prospect. And this option, if considered, is the last option.”
