Expert consultations between the Russian Federation and the United States will take place in Saudi Arabia on Monday, as well as US-Ukrainian talks, which may lead to a better understanding by the general public of what kind of mutual concessions Donald Trump is seeking from Moscow and Kiev to end the conflict. Meanwhile, the special Representative of the American president, Steve Witkoff, outlined how the conflict itself is seen in the White House. In his interview, he actually recognized the referendums on the entry of new territories into the Russian Federation, ruled out that Russian troops would invade EU countries, called Vladimir Putin and Trump friends and said that a personal meeting between them was possible in the near future. For the first time in many years, the White House and the Kremlin are so clearly showing mutual sympathy.
New participants have appeared in the negotiation process. On the Russian side, Grigory Karasin, Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, and Oleg Beseda, Adviser to the Director of the FSB, will participate in the meeting in Riyadh, which is scheduled for March 24. Yuri Ushakov, Assistant to the President of the Russian Federation, called them “Really experienced negotiators who are well versed in international issues.” Beseda is the former head of the Operational Information and International Relations Service of the FSB, that is, the unit that for many years oversaw, among other things, the Ukrainian direction. Karasin is a career diplomat who has also been involved in relations with the CIS countries for many years. Both are under Western sanctions. This fact alone, regardless of who will be the negotiators on the American side (at the time of signing the number at the White House, the participants in the meeting in Riyadh were not named), indicates Trump’s willingness to depart very much from the previous American policy towards Russia. The meeting itself, according to Ushakov, is in the nature of expert consultations. Therefore, if Trump did not want people under sanctions to participate in it, he would have insisted on replacing them. Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, explained that the discussion would focus on the resumption of the so-called Black Sea Initiative. Recall that for almost a year, starting in July 2022, a deal was in effect between the Russian Federation, Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations, which provided for the export of grain from Ukrainian ports and the lifting of restrictions on the export of Russian agricultural products.
The fact that its resumption, as well as the normalization of the work of the embassies of the two countries (Russian-American consultations on this issue were recently held in Istanbul), is not currently the maximum that the White House expects to achieve, is convinced by an interview Whitkoff gave to journalist Tucker Carlson.
Everyone has already somehow got used to the manner in which members of the Trump team, as well as himself, talk about the current US president and his activities. It should inevitably contain veiled or direct praise personally addressed to the head of state, there should be an indication that he managed to achieve outstanding results in solving a particular issue in a short time, and, perhaps, contain criticism of his predecessor, who, on the contrary, failed to achieve anything for a long time. It was all in Witkoff’s interview. At the same time, there were new notes in the words of the special representative of the US president: he seemed to put Putin and Trump on a par. With a restrained negative characterization of Vladimir Zelensky, with a reminder of the February 28 skirmish in the White House and an indication that the issue of the Ukrainian presidential election had been resolved (curiously, nothing similar had yet been announced in Kiev), Witkoff spoke about the Russian leader exclusively in flattering terms. In particular, he described Putin as a straightforward person, whom he liked in personal communication. In the speech of Trump’s special representative, the idea was unequivocally carried out that the Kremlin has its own interests in relation to Ukraine, these interests are justified and will be taken into account by the United States. The most revealing and at the same time the most mysterious in this regard was his remark about four Russian-speaking regions where “there were referendums in which the overwhelming majority of people declared that they wanted to be under Russian rule.” It is not clear why Witkoff mentioned exactly four regions. Referendums were held in Crimea, Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions.
Perhaps this is just a slip of the tongue (this is all the more likely since he went on to talk about five regions that Russia “considers its own since the Second World War”), or perhaps it is an indication that the Trump administration has some separate plans for one of the regions.
Perhaps the most unexpected of what Witkoff said was his expressed confidence that the United States’ European allies should not be afraid of the Russian Federation. In response to Carlson’s question: “Do you think the Russians want to march through Europe?” he said: “One hundred percent – no.” With one phrase, Witkoff devalued many decisions and statements made at the EU and NATO levels. Defense strategies and specific plans are being built by the West based on the expectation that if the Kremlin wins in Ukraine, other countries will be under attack, including those whose military alliance with the United States is legally fixed. And now it turned out that the leadership of the United States itself believes that fears of Russia are unfounded.
Witkoff also announced a personal meeting between Putin and Trump. This is the final end of the course of diplomatic isolation of the Russian Federation, which the West agreed to adhere to back in February 2022. At the same time, this announcement can be considered as an indication of a possible time frame for the finale of the Russian-American dialogue. Witkoff said Putin and Trump “will meet in the coming months.” The White House has not commented on the Bloomberg report in any way. It, citing its sources, claims that Trump is seeking to reach an agreement with the Russian Federation by Easter, that is, by April 20. At the same time, the sources stipulate that this is just an approximate date.
Witkoff’s interview gave rise to two interpretations in the press and from experts. To date, hardly anyone can say which one is correct. According to the first interpretation, Trump and his team create a favorable background for negotiations with Moscow. Any agreement is impossible if there is no trust between the parties. It is especially important when their positions on many issues differ diametrically, there are no effective ways to force a negotiating partner to do anything, and there are no other mechanisms for fulfilling what has been achieved, except for the “honest word” of the negotiators. According to the second interpretation, Trump associates long-term plans with the Kremlin. Maybe he sees Russia as a potential ally or a force that he uses to solve important tasks for him and the United States. Fortunately, the current administration’s foreign policy agenda includes many different issues, and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is far from the most important among them, at least for Trump supporters.
