The recent parliamentary elections in Czechia have ushered in a significant political shift, with billionaire and former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš celebrating a resounding victory. His ANO party, which previously held the premiership from 2017 to 2021, secured 80 out of 200 seats in the main legislative body, positioning it as the country’s dominant political force. While Babiš’s return to the prime minister’s office is not yet guaranteed, as President Petr Pavel initiates consultations with parliamentary party leaders, his potential leadership heralds notable changes in Czech domestic and foreign policy alignment.
The two-day election, concluding on October 5th, saw ANO, whose acronym translates to “YES” in Czech, garner an impressive 34.5% of the vote. This victory marked a substantial lead over the incumbent Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s SPOLU (“Together”) coalition, which managed only 23.4%. Consequently, Babiš’s party gained 80 mandates, while SPOLU secured 52. President Pavel has begun meeting with the leaders of the newly elected parties to determine the next head of government. Although the Czech constitution grants the president the right to appoint any candidate, the overwhelming success of ANO means that any prime minister chosen from opposing political factions would face considerable challenges in forming a stable and productive government.
Despite his party’s strong showing, ANO has yet to officially nominate its candidate for prime minister. While Andrej Babiš remains the prominent figure, there is speculation that the party might put forward Karel Havlíček, a former speaker of parliament and Babiš’s trusted associate. Havlíček presents a less controversial profile, largely free from the legal entanglements that have plagued Babiš. The former premier himself faces ongoing criminal proceedings, most notably the “Stork’s Nest” case, involving allegations of EU subsidy fraud where he allegedly manipulated ownership of a company to qualify for small and medium-sized enterprise grants. A verdict from the Prague Municipal Court is anticipated this October.
Voters, however, appeared largely unfazed by these allegations or the prospect of Babiš potentially facing imprisonment. Analysts suggest that ANO’s meticulously crafted election campaign, particularly its focus on social welfare, was a decisive factor, sharply contrasting with the missteps of the ruling SPOLU coalition. SPOLU’s strategy of fear-mongering, warning of a “budgetary Armageddon,” a “pro-Russian foreign policy,” and an “EU exit referendum” if Fiala were to lose, failed to resonate. ANO, conversely, adopted a more conciliatory approach, offering tangible solutions rather than threats, and crucially, affirmed its commitment to Czechia’s continued membership in the EU and NATO, thus attracting support even from those wary of an EU exit.
At the core of ANO’s electoral triumph was its comprehensive social agenda. The party pledged measures such as reducing income tax for businesses, lowering electricity prices, and providing affordable mortgages for young families – promises that the previous coalition either failed to deliver or was unwilling to pursue. However, the path to fulfilling these extensive promises may prove challenging given the current parliamentary landscape.
ANO’s victory does not grant it an outright majority in parliament, necessitating complex negotiations to form a governing coalition. Potential allies include the right-wing Motoristé sobě (Automobilists for Themselves), with 13 seats, and the conservative, anti-immigrant SPD (Freedom and Direct Democracy), which holds 15 seats and is led by the colorful Czech-Japanese-Korean entrepreneur Tomio Okamura. Initial discussions between Babiš and these parties reportedly took place on October 4th, though no definitive outcomes have been announced.
Early commentary in the Czech press suggests that a potential Babiš premiership might not lead to significant foreign policy disagreements with President Pavel, contrary to some initial concerns. While Babiš may not support further financing for Ukraine, he consistently reaffirms Czechia’s future within the European Union and NATO. Furthermore, his previous tenure as prime minister (2017-2021) was marked by a sharp deterioration in relations with Russia, including diplomatic expulsions following Czech accusations of Russian involvement in the 2014 Vrbětice ammunition depot explosions. Even now, while advocating for peace between Russia and Ukraine, Babiš has expressed readiness to support Poland within NATO’s framework, particularly concerning airspace defense, following recent drone incursions into Polish territory.
Ultimately, the emergence of another potentially Euro-skeptic leader at the helm of an EU member state is unlikely to fundamentally alter the broader Western political approach towards Russia. Even if Czechia were to align with criticisms of sanctions against Moscow or back Hungary and Slovakia on continued Russian oil imports, the impact on overall EU policy would likely be limited. Major powers like France, Germany, and Italy remain the primary drivers of EU foreign policy, and the Union has established mechanisms to manage or circumvent dissenting voices when making critical decisions.