The heads of major international companies, including Siemens, BMW, Saudi Aramco, Rio Tinto, will take part in the China Development Forum, which will be held in Beijing at the end of the week. Some of them will be received by Chinese President Xi Jinping. These meetings will take place against the backdrop of the unfolding trade war between the United States and China. US President Donald Trump imposed 20 percent tariffs on Chinese exports, to which Beijing responded by imposing additional duties on American agricultural products. As of January, foreign direct investment in China decreased by 13.4% over the year. Beijing will convince the guests that the country’s economy is growing steadily and there is no reason for alarm.
According to the Reuters news agency, fewer corporate heads will come from America than last year. Moreover, they will avoid hype in the press due to the fact that Washington has increased control over American investments in China. Google, Illumina, PVH and Walmart are not on the proposed list of participants. The American companies Broadcom and Synopsys will send their executives to the forum.
Joerg Wuttke, head of the DGA Group and former chairman of the European Chamber of Commerce in China, says: “It is important for China to show interest in the presence of foreign businesses, but it is unlikely that such a dialogue will be useful. Of course, it’s nice that Xi will say something about his intention to open China’s economy more widely to foreign capital, but the question is, how much will this be supported by real deeds? We European businessmen have discovered a new disease. It’s called promise fatigue.”
Vasily Kashin, a senior researcher at the Higher School of Economics, spoke about the prospects of the forum in an interview with NG: “Foreign business no longer considers China as a platform for the production of goods for export to third countries. Now it’s getting difficult. More and more restrictive measures are being introduced against Chinese products in the United States and the European Union. Foreign firms see this and will gradually move to other Asian countries or, for example, to Latin America.”
According to the expert, China has the opportunity to attract investors from the BRICS countries, but these countries do not export capital on a large scale. China can count on the states of the Middle East with their large capital reserves. But in general, the Chinese rely on development at the expense of domestic sources of capital. “On the other hand, foreign investments are still important in certain sectors because they allow us to acquire new technologies and new experiences. Therefore, China will do everything possible to slow down the withdrawal process and retain at least some of the foreign investors,” Kashin believes.
Referring to the actions of the White House administration, the expert said: “Trump started a trade war with China during his first term. Then a number of companies began to move production to other countries. Mexico has benefited the most from this. Now Trump has raised a new wave of tariff restrictions. Therefore, foreign businesses are again looking for other jurisdictions, those where there are more favorable conditions for trade with the United States and Europe.”
When asked if some firms that left China might drop anchor in Russia, Kashin noted: “So far, there is only a trend towards normalization of relations with the United States. No sanctions have been lifted. We do not know how the attempt to resolve the Ukrainian crisis will end. That’s one thing. Another is that China attracted investors from abroad to its industry because, firstly, it had a ready-made infrastructure, and secondly, it had a training system that provided a large number of skilled workers and technological engineers. And in Russia there is a shortage of labor for industry. Therefore, some firms may come to us, but this will not be a significant trend.”
However, in Russia, the authorities are also trying to do something for investors from China and other countries. According to TASS, the Russian-Chinese economic forum Amurexpo-2025 will be held in Blagoveshchensk and the Chinese city of Heihe from May 23 to May 25. According to Yuri Trutnev, Deputy Prime Minister and Presidential Plenipotentiary Envoy to the Far Eastern Federal District, China remains one of the main strategic partners in the Far East and one of the leading ones for the Amur Region. “The Amurexpo Economic Forum is another platform for the exchange of experience and an opportunity for entrepreneurs of the two countries to find a business partner and discuss the implementation of investment projects,” he said.
Meanwhile, analysts in the West and East Asia disagree on whether Beijing will be able to put an end to the withdrawal of investors. According to the AP news agency, the Chinese leadership has outlined economic growth of about 5% in 2025. But it is unknown whether this milestone will be reached. Pressure on Chinese exports is increasing, domestic demand is weak, and the real estate crisis that began more than a year ago has not yet been overcome.
China’s tough fight against criminals from foreign countries does not help to calm China’s Western partners either. As noted by Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly, four Canadians were executed in China for drug-related crimes.
