In a significant recalibration of its South Asia policy, the Trump administration is orchestrating a strategic pivot towards Pakistan, a historic ally with whom relations have often been strained. This rapprochement comes at the expense of a noticeable cooling in ties with India, Washington’s key strategic partner, sparked by trade tariff disputes and US demands for Delhi to halt Russian oil imports. Paradoxically, the cornerstone of this renewed US-Pakistan friendship is oil—specifically, President Trump’s bold claim of vast, untapped reserves in a country with no proven major deposits.
The diplomatic thaw was on full display in Washington, where Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif and, more tellingly, Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir, were received with unusual warmth. President Trump hailed the visiting officials as “great leaders,” a stark contrast to the colder receptions of recent years. The inclusion of the army chief—who holds ultimate authority on national security in Pakistan—underscores Washington’s acknowledgment of where true power lies. This high-level engagement was quickly followed by tangible rewards: the US slashed tariffs on Pakistani imports to a favorable 19%, while tariffs on goods from neighboring rival India were hiked to 50%, signaling a clear shift in regional preference.
Islamabad, for its part, has actively courted Washington’s favor. In a series of goodwill gestures, Pakistan released several terror suspects into US custody and publicly credited President Trump with preventing a full-scale war with India, even officially nominating him for the Nobel Peace Prize. However, the most potent lure proved to be the promise of access to Pakistan’s supposedly untouched natural resources. President Trump enthusiastically announced on his Truth Social platform a new partnership for joint US-Pakistan exploitation of these “rich oil deposits,” with an American company to be selected to lead the venture.
Yet, this centerpiece of the renewed alliance is raising eyebrows and deep skepticism among experts within Pakistan. The promise of an oil bonanza is being widely dismissed as a “political stunt.” For decades, the world’s largest energy corporations, including American giants, have scoured Pakistan’s territory and offshore waters for significant, commercially viable oil reserves with little success. Raza Khan, a former managing director of Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL), bluntly stated that what Trump calls “large Pakistani oil reserves” simply do not exist in any known data. “We have no data on them and no idea where they might be,” he explained, a sentiment echoed by many Pakistani experts.
Despite the dubious claims about oil, the economic engagement is broadening, with the US announcing a $500 million investment in Pakistan’s nascent mineral sector, targeting copper and rare earth metals. This series of moves suggests Washington is willing to stake its regional strategy on a foundation of questionable economic promises. By prioritizing Islamabad over Delhi, the US is making a high-stakes gamble, trading a relationship with a burgeoning global power for a renewed alliance with a complex partner, all seemingly hinged on the allure of phantom oil and sending ripples across the region.