As the leaders of Russia and the United States prepare for a pivotal summit in Alaska, Beijing is watching with a mixture of public support and private apprehension. Chinese state media have reported on the upcoming talks, highlighting President Xi Jinping’s expressed backing for Russia’s efforts to find a peaceful solution in Ukraine. However, beneath the surface of official endorsements, a deep-seated skepticism prevails, reflecting Beijing’s fear that any agreement struck between Moscow and Washington could come at the expense of China’s strategic interests.
The official narrative from Beijing portrays a nation committed to diplomacy. Following a phone call between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, Chinese media scrupulously reported Xi’s positive assessment of the summit. The reports stressed that China has consistently advocated for a peaceful settlement in Ukraine based on the UN Charter. Yet, they also echo Xi’s caveat that there are no simple solutions and that achieving a lasting peace will require significant time and effort, subtly managing expectations for a breakthrough.
This cautious optimism is overshadowed by pessimism from Chinese foreign policy experts. Li Haidong, a professor at the China Foreign Affairs University, noted that while the talks occur at a critical moment, the chances for a durable peace are slim due to the “incompatible” positions of Russia and Ukraine. Underscoring this reality, state-run outlets like the Global Times have even quoted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s stark warning that “decisions without Ukraine will not bring peace,” acknowledging the fundamental obstacles ahead.
Beyond the Ukraine conflict, Beijing is acutely aware of the broader geopolitical chess game. The summit comes amid thinly veiled economic threats from Washington, with suggestions that the U.S. could impose heavy tariffs on Chinese imports if Beijing continues its purchase of Russian oil. This pressure fuels concerns in Beijing that a primary U.S. objective is to drive a wedge between China and Russia, leaving China isolated. A potential Moscow-Washington detente could reshape the global balance of power to China’s detriment, testing Beijing’s long-term strategic patience.
Conversely, some analysts suggest Russia may be using the summit to bind China even closer. The Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post posits that Moscow, fearing a potential deal between the U.S. and China, is engaging with Washington to force Beijing into a tighter embrace. By demonstrating its diplomatic options, Russia may be maneuvering to ensure China cannot scale back its political and military support. This strategic partnership is not merely theoretical; it is reinforced by tangible actions, such as recently concluded joint naval drills between Russian and Chinese warships.
Ultimately, while China is not physically present at the negotiating table in Alaska, it is arguably the most significant invisible participant. Russian analysts note that the talks concern not just Ukraine but the entire security architecture of Eurasia. With European powers largely on the sidelines of this direct U.S.-Russia dialogue, China remains Russia’s key partner in shaping a future security framework for the continent. Beijing’s role as a wary observer, strategic partner, and potential target of geopolitical maneuvering places it at the very heart of the summit’s unwritten agenda.