Leaders of the 32 NATO member states are gathering in The Hague for a summit designed to project an image of unwavering unity. However, behind the carefully managed facade, the alliance is grappling with profound disagreements over the war in Ukraine and a controversial new defense spending target, with anxieties over the unpredictable stance of U.S. President Donald Trump looming large over the proceedings. The meeting, helmed by incoming Secretary-General Mark Rutte, is set to be a critical test of transatlantic cohesion in an increasingly volatile world.
The summit’s organizers have gone to extraordinary lengths to accommodate President Trump and prevent any potential diplomatic flare-ups. In a sharp departure from tradition, the event has been compressed into less than 24 hours, featuring just one three-hour working session. This streamlined format is widely seen as an attempt to maintain Trump’s engagement. The final communiqué is expected to be a mere five paragraphs long, a stark contrast to the 44-paragraph declaration from last year’s Washington summit, carefully omitting potentially contentious language on Russia and Ukraine that might provoke the American president.
The central, and most divisive, agenda item is a new proposal for allies to raise their defense spending to an unprecedented 5% of GDP by 2035. This initiative, driven by both Trump’s persistent demands and growing fears of Russian aggression, would see 3.5% allocated to traditional military capabilities and 1.5% to counter-terrorism and military-grade infrastructure. While nations like Poland, Greece, and Latvia are expected to meet the target, it has triggered public pushback from Spain and quiet resistance from Belgium, both of whom are arguing for greater flexibility, citing insurmountable budgetary challenges.
The delicate issue of Ukraine’s future relationship with the alliance is being handled with extreme caution. According to sources, the final summit document will label Russia a “direct threat” but will offer only vague assurances of support for Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration, stating that membership will be possible only when “appropriate conditions are met.” Underscoring the cautious approach, the NATO-Ukraine Council will convene at the foreign minister level instead of with leaders, and no meeting is scheduled between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has reportedly questioned the value of his attendance.
Beyond the immediate challenges, the summit exposes deeper, existential questions about NATO’s very purpose. The situation was candidly summarized by Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto, who recently questioned if the alliance still has a “reason to exist” when the Atlantic is no longer the world’s political center. His call for NATO to fundamentally reinvent itself and engage with the Global South signals a growing belief among some allies that the bloc must evolve beyond its Cold War framework to remain relevant in the 21st century.