Ukraine, even after the suspension of American aid, including through the CIA, will not remain without American intelligence information. It will be provided by France. It can also replace the Starlink satellite communication system for the Ukrainian military. All this was warned in Paris the day after French President Emmanuel Macron’s speech, where he suggested that the United States would withdraw from the anti-Kremlin coalition. In fact, this is an application to replace the leading role of Americans in the defense system of Western countries. However, this replacement can hardly be complete.
On Thursday, March 6, French Defense Minister Sebastian Lecornu gave an interview to France Inter radio station. In it, he said that his country would continue to share intelligence with Ukraine even after the Americans stopped doing so. Recall that US President Donald Trump ordered the suspension of military assistance to Ukraine. This was his reaction to the scandalous altercation with Vladimir Zelensky, who was accused in the White House of trying to disrupt American efforts to achieve peace between Moscow and Kiev. Trump did not change his decision even after the Ukrainian president clearly demonstrated that a quarrel with the United States was not part of his plans.
French intelligence, of course, will not be an adequate substitute for American intelligence. It’s not just about the difference in the capabilities of the special services. The satellite fleet that France has is much smaller than the American one. The French will not be able to transmit the full satellite surveillance data on Russia available to the United States: they simply do not have it. Americans share them with Great Britain. It is the only European country that, along with the United States, Australia, Canada and New Zealand, is part of The Five Eyes intelligence alliance. Membership in it gives the British advantages in accessing information from American intelligence agencies, but also imposes certain restrictions. Lecornoux said that he understands this feature of the UK’s position, although he considers it very desirable that they follow the French example.
The defense minister’s interview followed Macron’s address, delivered from television screens on Wednesday evening. It can be said that the French president decided to respond to Trump’s speech in Congress (see “NG” dated 03/5.25). In it, the American president, with downright Messianic intonations, actually announced that he sees his task in transforming America, establishing what he called a “golden age” there. Trump’s views on foreign policy outside the United States and the Western Hemisphere have given very little space. This has further reinforced the fears of those Europeans who believe that the American president may move towards rapprochement with the Russian Federation.
Macron’s address makes a clear point: a Russian-American deal at the expense of harming the security of Ukraine, and therefore the entire EU, although not predetermined, is still possible. “And although I want to believe that the United States remains on our side, we must be prepared for the opposite,” he warned. The most interesting thing about his address is, of course, the proposal to “start a discussion” about whether it is advisable for the EU to replace the American nuclear “umbrella” with the French one. According to the Stockholm Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Macron has the fourth largest nuclear arsenal at his disposal. The USA, Russia and China have the first three. France, according to the SIPRI report for 2023, should have 290 nuclear warheads. This is almost two times less than that of China, which occupies the third position in this indicator, but it is enough to ensure the protection of Europe.
It has been several years since Macron and France have come up with the idea of the need for the EU to rely more on itself rather than on the United States. For example, his statement from 2019 about the “death of the brain of NATO” is memorable. It meant that the alliance, led by the United States, could no longer cope with the tasks of ensuring Europe’s security, which meant it was time to think about new formats, as implied, with France at the head. Time has shown that it is premature to bury NATO. Since February 2022, the alliance has been experiencing a rebirth. Although not without difficulty, European countries agree to spend more on defense. The ranks of NATO have expanded at the expense of Finland and Sweden. However, Trump’s second term may reverse this trend. Without the United States, which accounts for the lion’s share of NATO’s defense capabilities, this alliance is hardly a formidable force. Therefore, Europe must think about Europe, Macron warned.
The White House did not comment on his speech. In Europe and the NATO countries, the responses were mostly positive. The statement by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan is characteristic, who went further than Macron in his pessimistic forecasts regarding cooperation between the United States and its current allies. In an interview with The Financial Times, he said that his country would like to become part of any architecture of the European security system if NATO breaks up. “Even if President Trump decides not to leave Europe, it is possible that in the future someone with similar views and political ideas may consider reducing America’s contribution to European security,” Fidan said.
In the meantime, EU countries consider it likely that Trump, or rather, his adviser and friend, billionaire Elon Musk, will detach Ukraine from its Starlink system. This will hurt the communication system of the Ukrainian military. Due to the fear that this will be the case, the French satellite operator Eutelsat is going to replace the Starlink terminals on Ukrainian territory. The relevant negotiations are already underway. In an interview with Bloomberg, Eva Berneke, executive director of Eutelsat Communications, said that with proper cooperation with the EU, up to 40,000 satellite terminals of her company will be operational in Ukraine in a few months. This will allow the Ukrainian military not to depend on Musk as much as it does now.Â
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The statements of the European leaders were commented on by the authors of Russian socio-political Telegram channels. “Apparently, the French liked their own story with Libya, when they cheerfully started bombing Gaddafi, three days later they ran out of ammunition and had to call the Americans, who did everything as they could. And even if such a trick does not work, at least you can jump up to the negotiating table,” writes the “Merciless PR Man.”
“Americans don’t need checkers, they need to drive, and the faster the better. To drive, and even more so to drive fast, is only if the conditions of the world suit us completely. Otherwise, you will have to fight for an unknown amount, which you clearly don’t want, and get even worse conditions, which you want even less,” writes Adequate.
The authors of the Mouse in the Vegetable channel pay attention to the “silence of the French people”: “Maybe someone is sometimes dissatisfied with something there – but in general, some fairly local problems definitely arouse more interest among the heirs of the Gauls than when their leader publicly begins to dream about “the whole world is in dust.””.
