The Shangri-La Dialogue on Security, held annually in Singapore, is gaining great international resonance. This time, French President Emmanuel Macron and US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth will speak at the forum. They will announce the main points of their countries’ policy in the Asia-Pacific region (APR). Earlier, the Chinese Defense Minister spoke in Singapore. But, according to the Western press, he was arrested for corruption. It is not yet clear who will represent Beijing.
The main contenders for dominance in the Asia-Pacific region are the United States and China. The United States has numerous military bases in the region and relies on its allies – Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines. China has a de facto ally in Cambodia, which can provide the Chinese Navy with a port for conducting combat operations. But for now, China is strengthening its position with soft power – offering partners investments and favorable terms for trade.
Anyway, the Chinese issue has become the main mystery of the forum. The Financial Times newspaper writes that the head of the Chinese Defense Ministry, Admiral Dong Jun, will not attend the meetings that will open on Friday. Meanwhile, Beijing has previously firmly and argumentatively voiced its position at the forum. The newspaper, citing five sources and a message allegedly sent by Beijing, claims that the admiral will definitely not be in Singapore. After all, he is under investigation on suspicion of corruption.
NG appealed to three venerable Sinologists with a request to express their opinion on China’s participation in the conference. That’s what they noted.
Andrey Ostrovsky, Chief Researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences: “The Financial Times is spreading disinformation. It makes no sense to comment on her article.”
Alexander Lukin, Scientific Director of the Institute of China and Modern Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences: “The position of Minister of Defense of China looks very impressive from the outside. But in fact, it’s like the head of a department responsible only for external relations. The factor of his presence or absence should not be exaggerated. The Central Military Council is responsible for the command of the Armed Forces. In addition, the importance of the Shangri-La Dialogue forum itself was not high in the eyes of the Chinese leadership. After all, this is not a state-level meeting. His sponsors are a brain trust in London. And one more thing. China itself is hosting a conference on security issues. High-ranking military and politicians, as well as experts, come to these meetings.”
Andrey Karneev, Head of the School of Oriental Studies at the Higher School of Economics: “The fight against corruption in China is underway. High-ranking military personnel may also be investigated. Nevertheless, it is important for China to clarify its position at the forum, which attracts media attention. I think Beijing will send its representative to Singapore.”
According to a Reuters report, Macron’s speech at the forum will be the final stroke in the picture of his tour of Southeast Asian countries. The French President will urge the States present at the meeting to respect human rights, respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states, including those that do not have large human and material resources. He will also confirm that Paris considers it important to cooperate with the United States and its allies in the field of defense. But in fact, this cooperation boils down to sending an aircraft carrier or a warship to the Asia-Pacific region once a year.
Hegseth’s speech is expected to have a much greater resonance. After all, this former television columnist will have to reveal the US approach to the problems of the region, where they are opposed by China and where all major powers, including Russia, have their interests. According to Reuters, the success of the new head of the Pentagon depends on whether he can convince listeners that the United States is a more reliable partner for the countries of the region than China. In his first months as head of the Pentagon, Hegseth focused on domestic political disputes. And here he must reveal his vision of Washington’s military policy in the region.
A Pentagon official, who was not allowed to give his name, said the minister would convince allies that Washington, not the Chinese Communist Party, could serve as a firm pillar. It will also benefit Hegset that the Chinese Defense Minister will not be present at the forum.
Before his trip to Singapore, Hegseth criticized the administration of former President Joseph Biden. Biden “talked about turning East, but in fact he showed weakness. And now the United States, together with its allies, will show that they are strong,” the minister said.